Gabriel B
15 supporters
Ukraine - November 7, 2023

Ukraine - November 7, 2023

Nov 08, 2023

Ukraine has reportedly commenced a local breakout attempt at Krynky, pushing south through the first towards the main highway, which eventually leads to Melitopol. Ukraine is pushing west of Kozachi Laheri as well, likely a diversionary tactic. Increasingly, it seems as if the bulk of Krynky is under Ukrainian control, and there has been a notable shift the past day or two, with far fewer drone strikes taking place at the edge of the settlement. All in all, it seems as if Ukraine has gained the initiative here, and that Russia has flipped from a containment strategy to more actively trying to defend their own positions. In addition, Russian intelligence capabilities in the region are lacking. It was reported that the location of their commanding officer, Teplinsky, was leaked. However, he was reportedly not at his command center when it was attacked. Even so, it's an inauspicious start to his new command.

After an immense amount of effort and time, Ukraine has finally breached the first layer of Russia's major defensive belt east of Novoprokopivka. Ukraine has already breached the line fully elsewhere, by Verbove. Russia has also hammered the small segment that Ukrainian troops advanced to, and it's not certain whether or not Ukraine managed to hold onto the spot. It does however mean that Russia will need to pay additional attention to the Novoprokopivka area in order to ensure that this doesn't develop into a full breach. That said, Russia has a separate line running all the way to Verbove behind the belt that Ukraine is trying to break through, and it extends for a while in both directions from the attempted breach. So even if Ukraine breaks through all layers of the primary belt, they will shortly encounter another major defensive later. However, the land they are currently trying to take is some of the highest in the entire region. If Ukraine can continue their breaching efforts and actually take over the area and break the current belt here, they will have a commanding vantage point over much of the area. In of itself it won't be enough to turn the tide (Ukraine still needs manpower, de-mining equipment, and so on), but it will complicate Russia's efforts to maintain their defenses.

Ukraine launched a round of deep strikes today, notably striking a drone training center south of the city of Donetsk. Taganrog airbase, located in Russia, was also hit by something. A significant portion of Russia's helicopter fleet had been redeployed here after Ukraine received cluster warhead ATACMS, which shredded a number of Russian helicopters in Berdyansk and Luhansk. Depending on what exactly happened at Taganrog, Russia may need to rethink their deployment once again.

Ukraine's independent election commission has confirmed that elections cannot be held during martial law, and that doing so would be in violation of the constitution. They pointed out that under the current set of laws that Ukraine's administration and legislative branch would simply remain in place until new elections. As for local elections, they are not scheduled until 2025, so Ukraine has time. The commission advised that if a constitutional amendment were to be passed, that it would need to be done before the end of the year so that the election process has enough time to be carried out for the elections which would ordinarily by held in 2024.

Shortly before the EU is expected to issue a report on Ukraine's progress towards meeting their seven prerequisites for accession talks, both Hungary and Poland have thrown up roadblocks. Hungary has complained about the new minorities law that Ukraine passed, which was done with the input and recommendation of the EU. Hungary is demanding additional amendments and guarantees to the ethnic Hungarian minority in Ukraine before they would allow accession talks to begin. As for Poland, the current government has demanded the exhumation of graves in Volyn. The region witnessed brutal massacres during World War 2 against ethnic Poles. Poland is wanting further details of the massacres that took place, and to hold any Ukrainians who participated responsible. This has long been a sticking point between Ukraine and Poland. Poland's government hasn't outright stated that resolution of the Volyn massacre is a requirement, but have suggested it is. However, this is Poland's current government, which is currently trying to cobble together a new ruling coalition. Chances are high that they will fail, and the opposition will put together a new government in the coming weeks, which may have a different position.

Separately, a new report has come out suggesting that the EU only believes that Ukraine has only fully met four of the seven requirements. The EU regularly decides to move ahead with accession talks and processes even when full requirements aren't satisfied; sometimes even up to outright membership when most, but not every requirement is met. Therefore, there's a chance that Ukraine can still begin accession talks even if the report is accurate.

Enjoy this post?

Buy Gabriel B a coffee

More from Gabriel B