Gabriel B
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Ukraine - November 27, 2023

Ukraine - November 27, 2023

Nov 28, 2023

Ukraine, Russia, and to an extent Moldova are still picking up the pieces after a torrential winter storm blasted the three countries. Moldova is recovering from power and Internet outages, while damage to Ukraine was far more extensive. Hundreds of animals are believed to be dead in an aquarium in Sevastopol due to damage from the storm. The waves and wind have calmed down, but a lot of damage was done to much of the Ukrainian coast, while wind dealt damage to Ukraine's interior. Russia defenses were swept away in Crimea, but key Russian supply lines in Krasnodar Krai were also heavily disrupted, with water sweeping over railroads and other key logistical infrastructure.

With that in mind, most of the day's developments were political. In terms of the battlefield, virtually nothing has changed, and fighting has even subsided some in the aftermath of the storm. This lull in fighting is likely to be quite short, and full scale hostilities will likely resume tomorrow or the day after. However, Ukraine and Russia still have been attacking each other's factories and energy infrastructure, such as in Smolensk, Russia. Along the front itself, skirmishes are taking place around Avdiivka still, but they are more localized as the storm made broad offensive pushes non-viable for the time being.

Signs of internal division are growing within Ukraine, ahead of a possible election this upcoming spring. An MP has called for the ouster of Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi, as Ukraine's offensive has failed and Russia is once again choosing the location of major battles. However, this push seems to be fairly unpopular as a wing of Zelenskyy's party within the Rada has in turn called to expel the MP who wanted to see Zaluzhnyi dismissed. Such blind faith I in leadership I fear will be more destructive than beneficial in the long run. Especially in the precarious opening couple of months of the full scale war, a rally around the flag effect was of the utmost importance, and Ukraine did remarkably well, between tall tales such as the Ghost of Kyiv, Zelenskyy's refusal to abandon Kyiv, and staunch resistance from Ukrainian citizens against the occupying Russian military. However, it has clearly come to the time where Ukraine needs to rethink things, and no one is infallible. This applies just as much to Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi as it does anyone else, and a major push coming from Zelenskyy's party to expel an MP for denouncing the failures of Ukraine's military will only encourage Ukraine to restrict their military creativity and capacity for change. It was when they were at their most innovative and willing to think outside the box that they enjoyed some of their greatest successes.

Even as things politically seem to be stagnant in Ukraine, the drive against corruption continues in earnest. In a slew of schemes roping in members of the military and individual entrepreneurs, it was found that a large amount of food was either stolen or never delivered to the Ukrainian military. It was either variously then sold elsewhere, or people were simply stealing money by never actually purchasing the food.

Zelenskyy is pushing hard for additional aid for the United States, and is quite aware of what the major holdup is. Ukraine has sent a delegation to the United States to meet specifically with Republican leadership, in an effort to get the party to once again fully endorse aid for Ukraine as they once did. Notably, Speaker of the House Johnson (a Republican), who is a bit of a Ukraine sceptic, has said that he thinks aid for Ukraine may be passed by the end of the year. If it is to happen, it will have to be soon as the United States is yet again facing a possible government shutdown in January, followed by what would be an even larger shutdown in February. Combined with the holiday season, time is at a premium.

Also of note, NATO is holding a summit this week. Sweden will not be joining the alliance during this summit, as Turkey and Hungary maintain their veto. However, various media has reported that Ukraine will be receiving a positive sign from NATO. I expect this to be little more than a reaffirmation that Ukraine is eligible for NATO membership, eventually. Previous statements from NATO about these types of situations are usually quite vague in nature, and I doubt that this will change seeing as there is no end in sight to the war.

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