Gabriel B
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Ukraine - November 14, 2023

Ukraine - November 14, 2023

Nov 15, 2023

Little has changed along the Dnipro river front, though Russia is reportedly establishing additional layers of defenses, particularly running parallel to the major highway in the area. As seen in Zaporizhzhia oblast, it's quite possible that these additional defenses will have been a waste of resources, but Russia is clearly preparing for an anticipated full fledged Ukrainian assault across the river, which would include armored vehicles.

In the Avdiivka area, the focal point of combat has shifted further north from the coke plant to the tiny village of Stepove. Russia has heavily assaulted the village, but have been unable to establish firm positions within it, let alone secure it. For now, Stepove largely remains under Ukrainian control. If Russia cannot break through here, their only other viable option to cut off supply lines would be a push from the south, but their southern effort so far has failed. Russia could also once again assault the coke plant and hope for success, but it would be extremely costly for Russia to do so as it is very well fortified. If Russia cannot capture Stepove or advance in the south, they will probably either resort to a shelling campaign against the plant to soften it up for a ground assault, or give up on cutting off Avdiivka and push into the city directly.

The EU is trying to find ways to come up with a shell shortfall, as the bloc is falling drastically behind their benchmarks for the pledged million shells to be delivered to Ukraine by the spring. Both German and Ukrainian officials have said that they anticipate the EU to fall short. Foreign suppliers like South Korea have more regional security concerns to take into consideration, as well the complicated logistics to supply Ukraine from such a distance (and usually through multiple third countries). As for the United States, it remains locked in internal political disputes over the budget, and an increasing dominant wing of the Republicans who are opposed to continued aid for Ukraine. The United States is also heavily dividing attention between Ukraine and Israel; additional aid for Israel was announced including Hellfire missiles, bunker busters, and tens of thousands artillery shells.

However, there is some good news for Ukraine on the supply front. Germany has pledged over two hundred all terrain vehicles, and is paying for a new contract which will see Ukraine receive 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks; not as modern as the Leopard 2s, but still quite decent.

Also involving Germany is a scandal that has hit a prominent German journalist, who secretly received €600 thousand from the oligarch Alexei Mordashov, who has ties to the Kremlin and has been sanctioned by the west as a result. Hubert Seipel, the journalist, has written books which have been accused of portraying Putin in a good light. The payments reportedly extend back to at least 2015. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Germany has faced a reckoning with just how much their country was linked with Russia in a number of ways, ranging from trade, energy dependence, and warm relations between many top German and Russian officials. These connections were a major source of contention between Ukraine and Germany and have contributed to slow weapons deliveries from Germany and continued reluctance to supply weapons such as Taurus missiles. If Ukraine has behind the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines as some reporting has stated, the relative friendliness of Germany towards Russia at the time would have certainly been a factor in Ukraine's calculus.

In light of rare but continues attacks against merchant vessels, Ukraine has launched a new insurance program for ships carrying Ukrainian agricultural products. The program may help to alleviate some fears that companies have about shipping to and from Ukraine. However, Ukraine has not made any progress regarding transportation issues with Poland. The striking Polish truckers remain on strike in opposition to policies regarding permits for Ukrainian truckers, and Poland (still trying to put together a new government) and Ukraine have been unable to come to an agreement with each other, let alone with the truckers.

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