Gabriel B
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Ukraine - May 31, 2023

Ukraine - May 31, 2023

Jun 01, 2023

Some rumors erupted that Ukraine's offensive is due to kick off tonight or in the early hours of the morning, but seeing as it is now past dawn in Ukraine and the offensive has not yet commenced, these rumors are likely false.

Kyiv was struck by another round of Russian missiles. Ukraine is seemingly responding to these attacks by upping their shelling of Belgorod oblast and, when possible, sending drones in the direction of Moscow. Despite rumors that Ukraine's offensive was due to kick off imminently from first Russian, then Ukrainian sources, there was no massive artillery bombardment or anything to indicate that the counteroffensive is commencing. Nor where there a large reported number of probing assaults or anything. All in all, the front has certainly settled in Ukraine, with both Russia and Ukraine establishing a rhythm of targeting each other; Ukraine is hitting depe targets along the Sea of Azov shore and hitting targets within Russia, while Russia persists with drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian cities. The stalemate is waiting to be broken, and it seems highly unlikely that Russia will be the one to do it in the next few months.

The United States announced a new, fairly small military aid package for Ukraine. Included are largely air defense munitions and systems, as well as artillery rounds. Notably included are AN/TWQ-1 "Avenger" air defense systems. They are highly mobile and designed for short range coverage, highly useful for an army on the march. Ideal against cruise missiles, drones, helicopters, and low flying warplanes (most warplanes in Ukraine fly low to avoid more numerous air defense systems both Ukraine and Russia have), the Avengers will serve as a key line of defense for Ukrainian ground units against aerial threats Russia can toss at them. Separately, Ukraine is due to receive another 1.25 billion USD in fiscal support from the United States.

Similar to Denmark's recent pledge, Norway has committed to a massive 6 billion USD military aid package for Ukraine, to be distributed over the next five years. Such massive investments to be disbursed over long periods demonstrates the increasing confidence that Ukraine's allies have that Ukraine will have a firm fighting force still established in several years. It is a notable departure from most such military aid packages for Ukraine, which have been much more short term in nature.

The IAEA has proposed a new, watered down concept for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. It's fairly barebones and scraps the idea for a neutral buffer zone around the plant. Instead, both sides are to agree to not sue the plant as a military site, to not damage it or any infrastructure important for its operations, and to not hinder the flow of personnel, items, energy, etc. key for the plant's continued operations. Such a promise on paper looks easy to make, but it would force Russia to stop using the power plant as a military base, which they are unlikely willing to do as it sits on a commanding position at a very wide point in the Dnipro river. And it is a region where Ukraine has shown a willingness to attempt to make crossings before, demonstrating why the plant is important for Russia from a military perspective.

Moldova has issued a bold statement that they seek to join the EU by 2030. The Transnistria issue aside (which is a major one, it's not clear that the EU is keen to accept a country in a similar situation other than Cyprus), Moldova faces a massive number of hurdles. Everything from regulatory compliance to corruption to questionable rule of law will come into play. In addition, Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, and the EU has certainly been accused of slow walking the integration of similar countries, including neighboring Romania. Moldova's current government has made massive strides and they are decoupling themselves from Russia, a likely unofficial but mandatory step to EU membership, but they will have to maintain both this rapid pace of reforms, improve political stability, and hope that the EU continues to treat the region with urgency in order for 2030 to be a viable target date in my view. For now, the EU is still clearly paying close attention to Moldova as additional EU sanctions were placed against both Russian and Moldovan citizens who were accused of attempting to destabilize Moldova.

Even as the United States has slapped sanctions against Kosovo's leadership, NATO is deploying additional forces to Kosovo as a display of force. Either the carrot or the stick (or both) seems to have worked, as Serbia's rhetoric has cooled slightly. It has also sparked political backlash in Kosovo, as the government is facing a possible vote of no confidence as a result of facing unprecedented sanctions from the United States. It seems, for now at least, that the worst of this flare up will have passed. But the ramifications of the United States and several EU nations publicly breaking with Kosovo politically (while still providing military backing) are immense. It will force a political recalculation in both Kosovo and Serbia, one which, hopefully, might just result in some solution to their dispute. And if that happens, Russia can put to bed any notions that they might have of stoking the dispute into a war in the backyard of the EU and NATO.

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