The city of Kyiv celebrated the anniversary of its founding today, and Russia launched a large drone strikes on the city. Many described an earthquake like sound, though sensors failed to pick up any notable seismic activity in the Kyiv area. Kyiv's mayor responded to the incident by saying it was a weapon which was to be sent to the front. In all reality, it was likely the intensity of the drone strikes and air defenses that caused the shaking.
Outside of Kyiv, all of Ukraine was put under an air raid alert as Russia launched a large number of drones and missiles. Ukrainian air defenses were engaged in cities as far west as Lviv. Southern locales still far from the front such as Voznesensk, northwest of Mykolaiv, were also activated. These broad strikes against Ukraine are continuing Russia's pattern in May, of sending out a larger number of missiles and drones but less targeted at particular pieces of infrastructure, combined with heavy attacks against Kyiv.
Fighting seems to have renewed a bit around Bakhmut, with some Ukrainian sources reporting limited advances around both Bakhmut flanks. Overall, the situation seems to be quite unchanged with both Russia and Ukraine largely unable to make any fundamental changes in the situation there. While the front shifts occasionally, the situation is broadly a stalemate. Prigozhin has suggested that PMC Wagner troops may remain in the city through June 5th as the handover to Russia's official military continues.
Ukraine continued their deep strikes against the land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine hit Berdiansk and Mariupol again, as well as the small coastal town of Yurivka. With these strikes, Ukraine is proving that they have the ability to sustain them, which will force Russia to shift their supply chains to accommodate Ukraine's Storm Shadow missiles. Ukraine today also boasted that their Storm Shadow missiles have had a 100% success rate thus far. While not possible to prove, it does seem plausible as Ukraine has launched a relatively small number of them, and there's no proof that any were intercepted or missed their target at this point. It's also been increasingly noted that Ukraine is targeting Russian artillery in particular, and there's been an uptick in combat footage verifying this. Especially when combined with Russian reports of Ukraine sending additional units to near the front, it does seem as if Ukraine is in the final stages of their shaping operations. By disrupting Russia's supply lines and taking out Russian artillery, Ukraine is setting themselves up to be able to exploit a breakthrough should they gain one, and limit Russia's ability to redirect forces and to reduce Ukraine's rate of advance by shelling Ukrainian positions.
The idea has been floated that Ukraine could join NATO if the war with Russia has ended, even with some Ukrainian territories being occupied. Circumstances were different, but Ukraine could hypothetically more or less follow in the model of West Germany. East Germany eventually reunited with Germany, and in the process, joined NATO. In a hypothetical situation in which the occupied regions of Russia somehow were freed from Russian control, they could then rejoin Ukraine, and thus NATO. However, Ukraine is at this time probably highly unlikely to agree to such a proposal. Establishing peace with Russia, with Russia still controlling Ukrainian territory, could be de facto conceding the territory to Russia. Russia would be unwilling to attack a NATO member, depriving Ukraine of an opportunity to reclaim the lost territories while defending themselves. And Ukraine would be unlikely to attack Russia, a country many times its size, especially as they would likely receive less backing. Some in the west would be reluctant to support Ukraine out of concerns that NATO could be dragged into full fledged war, and there would certainly be a perception among some that Ukraine would be the aggressor in such a situation.
As expected, Erdogan was declared the victory of the second and final rounds of elections in Turkey. While Kilicdaroglu, the more pro-west candidate lost, Erdogan can now move beyond campaigning and, perhaps, finally lift his veto on Sweden's accession bid to join NATO. It is hoped that Erdogan will ratify Sweden's accession bid prior to the NATO summit in July; it is widely assumed that Hungary's veto will be lifted at the same time as Turkey's. With new Swedish anti-terrorism laws going into effect June 1st, it will give time for Erdogan to declare that he has seen Sweden adhere to his demands. If Sweden is able to finally join NATO, it would help to cement the Baltic Sea region. Particularly with concerns over the years that Russia might try to seize some outlying Swedish islands, or the major islands of Gotland, those fears could be put to rest, allowing NATO to adjust their military posture.