Gabriel B
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Ukraine - May 24, 2023

Ukraine - May 24, 2023

May 25, 2023

With no further news about the incursion into Kursk oblast, I believe that the RDK and Legion forces returned to Ukraine. Seemingly far smaller in scope than the Belgorod incursion, their primary goal was likely purely reconnaissance, rather than the skirmishes that they fought in Belgorod oblast. Both missions seem to have paid off somewhat, as Ukrainian drone strikes were more successful today within Russia, suggesting that the RDK and Legion probably scoped out the positions of Russian electronic warfare and air defense units.

Russia claims to have wounded top Ukrainian general Zaluzhnyi in early May in a missile strike. As proof, they are citing the relative lack of photos of him of late. Some photos of him which are ostensibly recent show both Zaluzhnyi and other people who were wearing identical clothes as at previous events. Which is certainly possible (one only needs to look at Zelenskyy's rotation of t-shirts for his nightly addresses), but it's done little to dispel rumors that he is severely wounded. Ukraine has remained pretty tight lipped about the subject, with some Ukrainian officials simply stating that Zaluzhnyi is going about his business, meeting with Zelenskyy, and so on. If he was indeed wounded, it would certainly explain the seeming delay with Ukraine's counteroffensive.

It's also possible that they were diversions to enable sabotage groups to enter Russia. Par for the course, Russia has continued to be plagued by a spate of train derailments and mysterious fires. By far the most notable event today was the Russian Ministry of Defense, as it caught on fire. According to state media, the fire originated on a balcony, and caused a large plume of smoke to arise over Moscow. Whether this was caused by a cigarette that wasn't put out and unattended (I once lived in a building that suffered a small fire from this very thing, it can happen), sabotage, or something else is unknown at this time. No group has claimed responsibility, nor has Russia offered a reasom behind the blaze.

Relatedly, United States officials stated that Ukraine was likely behind the drone strikes on the Kremlin. While these statements were made anonymously, they should serve as fairly strong evidence that the attacks were not a false flag attempt by Russia. Russia's lack of a real response after is also pretty indicative in my view that it wasn't a false flag, as Russia gained nothing but embarrassment from the event.

Curiously, Ukraine said that Putin and Prigozhin are now top targets by their intelligence agencies. This very much so runs counter to previous reporting which indicates that Prigozhin had, in person, knowingly met with Ukrainian intelligence operatives. It's certainly possible that any semblance of a working relationship between Ukrainian intelligence and Prigozhin that might have existed soured dramatically after videos of beheadings of Ukrainian POWs by PMC Wagner soldiers emerged, not to mention the leveling and conquest of Bakhmut by PMC Wagner. Putin being a top target shouldn't be surprising, but the timing of the declaration is interesting since, as mentioned earlier, the United States suggested Ukraine was behind the Kremlin attack, disputing Russia's claim that the attack, which they viewed as an assassination attempt against Putin, was directed by the attack. Putting everything together, I would not be surprised if some backdoor arrangement was hammered out between Ukraine and the United States in order to cool tensions between the United States and Russia, with Ukraine taking a larger share of the blame for the Kremlin strike in exchange for something. Perhaps, for instance, the green light to send RDK and Legion troops into Russia, or in exchange for more military hardware.

Speaking of, the United States has agreed to sell a NASAMS air defense battery to Ukraine. This is particularly notable because typically the United States has been sending military hardware over as part of the presidential drawdown authority rather than direct sales. Given the large amount of financial assistance the United States has given Ukraine, it can be argued that the United States is still, in effect, transferring it over for free. If I had to guess, the United States is at least for the time being trying to alter the appearance of its aid to Ukraine due to domestic politics. The United States is hurtling towards a default due to budgetary disputes, which would likely trigger a global depression. While support for Ukraine still enjoys bipartisan support, there are detractors on both sides of the aisle. By making the transfer of this NASAMS battery and munitions officially a sale, it allows members of Congress with outspoken and budget hawk bases to still support assistance for Ukraine while pushing the narrative that they are working to reduce the deficit. Even if the United States avoids a default and can agree to a budget that doesn't slash support for Ukraine over the next year, the current spectacle might have long lasting effects. Major credit agencies such as Fitch are already contemplating reducing the credit rating of the United States due to bitter partisanship; and that seems unlikely to go away any time soon. This could in the long term reduce the global power of the United States, and thus its ability to marshall support for Ukraine.

The EU is to place a number of sanctions on several prominent Moldovan oligarchs and politicians with ties to Russia. A Moldovan court also affirmed that the pro-Russian candidate won the governorship of Gagauzia, an election that faced accusations of fraud by the central Moldovan authorities. After Moldovan police raided election centers, they claim to have evidence of fraud, but it has not yet been publicized as the investigation by the central government is presumably still underway.image

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