Gabriel B
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Ukraine - May 23, 2023

Ukraine - May 23, 2023

May 24, 2023

After additional minor incursions into Belgorod oblast were repelled, Russia restored order to the oblast and expelled the RDK and the Legion. The counter terrorism regime was thus subsequently cancelled. The two groups directly involved have shown themselves to be fairly unreliable narrators, claiming that no vehicles were lost in their series of raids, despite photographic evidence to the contrary. However, Russia has also been far from upfront, going so far as to possibly stage a photo of alleged dead RDK/Legion troops. The photo in question shows six people laying on a field, with what appears to be only minor injuries, absolutely no badges, patches, armbands, or headbands signifying loyalty, while wearing spotless boots. With this being the main evidence Russia provided for their claim of killing dozens of infiltrators, I find it quite probable that the RDK and Legion simply left once resistance became too strong, conducting a fighting retreat and taking fairly few casualties. Neither group is believed to be particularly large, and that's something important to keep in mind. They simply cannot sustain large number of casualties.... which leads me to my next point.

The RDK and the Legion, after withdrawing from Belgorod oblast, launched another incursion into neighboring Kursk oblast. This one seems to be much smaller in scale, as it seems as if RDK/Legion forces only made it to one village, Gogolevka. Despite its smaller scope, it was still accompanied by supporting strikes. A drone strike on an electrical station knocked out the power for several villages in the area. However, no energy measures were introduced in Kursk oblast. For now I'm marking a small sliver of territory as being under RDK/Legion control, as there has been no reporting that Russia expelled them yet. I will revert it to Russian controlled tomorrow if we hear nothing further as in this scenario, I will assume that they will have withdrawn back across the border. This raid has further expanded the possible front that Russia has to contend with drastically, while also demonstrating that the RDK and the Legion can continue to be a minor threat to Russia. As a result of these two raids in fairly rapid succession, I would not be surprised if in a few days a similar one is launched in Bryansk oblast, which would yet again extend the front that Ukraine and its proxies have demonstrated a willingness to strike at.

It's worth noting that a comparable unit exists for Belarus, the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment. Like the others, the unit has distanced itself from Ukraine's Foreign Legion to maintain autonomy. However, there's no pretense that they don't serve directly under Kyiv; their insignia has the Ukrainian flag on it, they were formally admitted into the Ukrainian military, and they have received Ukrainian military honors. Still, much as Ukraine has launched raids into Russia with Russian units backed by Ukrainian drones and artillery, they could do the same with Belarus if Belarus were to take a more active role in the war once again.

At long last the counteroffensive is beginning... soon. Budanov, Ukraine's military intelligence chief, has said that Ukraine now has the necessary weaponry for their offensive, a slight but notable departure from prior Ukrainian assertions over the past few weeks that they had almost everything they was necessary. That said, the weather in southeastern Ukraine is expected to be fairly stormy through the end of the month. Depending on the severity of the storms, Ukraine might choose to wait longer for a dry spell, though at the risk that Russia would probably be anticipating a move then. Launching earlier during the storms had the possible advantage of catching Russian troops slightly off guard. Still, there are few direct indications as to where the counteroffensive might be, as the front, yet again, through Ukraine remained quite static.

The sole exception is (as much as I hate writing about the area) the Kinburn spit. Ukrainian shelling damaged and destroyed a number of Russian equipment in the area. As always, such spikes in combat in the area are worth keeping an eye on, as Ukraine has demonstrated both the capability and willingness to launch amphibious raids in the area in the past. However, as with previous incidents of heightened combat, I suspect that nothing overly exciting will come from this.

Corruption is of course an issue that harms Ukraine's war effort, but it's rare that a corruption investigation has a very direct impact. Ukrainian investigators have accused a Volyn oblast based company with selling submarine components to Russiam. Though it's not the first time a situation like this has arisen, it's nevertheless notable. Details at this time are scarce, but I expect more will be made public as the investigation progresses.

A top EU official claimed that Ukrainian pilots are already receiving training on how to operate F-16s, a statement which Ukraine denied. There was probably some miscommunication involved here; perhaps training ground crews on maintenance and repair had already begun, for example. The most logical alternative is that Ukraine is purposefully obfuscating the timeline as to when they might receive the first batch of F-16s, so that their first use will be a surprise.image

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