After another day of advances, Ukraine's grasp over their remaining portion of Bakhmut is increasingly tenuous. At points, Ukraine merely holds strips of the city that are a block or two deep. Combat in the city remains fierce and despite the relatively rapid pace that PMC Wagner has taken over parts of Bakhmut the past few days, it still does not appear as if Ukraine is retreating, despite persistent rumors that they are. Russia is also showing signs that they will be done with their campaign once Bakhmut itsekf is wrapped up, striking bridges in Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar. With Ukraine recently reestablishing fairly firm routes out of Bakhmut yo Ukrainian positions that don't rely on the these situations, it doesn't seem as if Russia is trying to prevent a retreat. Instead, Russia is trying to reduce the avenues by which Ukraine can press any local advantages that they may have, while also reducing Russia's own capabilities to push far beyond Bakhmut. I am taking these attacks as a sign that for the moment, Russia does not intend to extend their Bakhmut campaign to Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, and other nearby settlements.
Around Bakhmut, Ukraine launched renewed assaults on Russia's flanks. Ukraine yet again met with the most success in the south, where they seized much of the high ground to the west of Klischiivka. However, Russia still holds the major fortifications here. Ukraine has already achieved one difficult task, which was establishing a firm presence on the high ground near Klischiivka. Dislodging the Russian and PMC Wagner troops from the area won't be easy though, and even if it is taking place now, it is probably too likely to stave off defeat in Bakhmut.
To the northwest of Bakhmut, Ukraine pressed towards Dubovo-Vasylivka and Zaliznyanske, while fighting around the still contested Orikhovo-Vasylivka spiked. Ukraine's goal here feels fairly obvious; the collapse of Russia's salient pointing towards Sloviansk. I think that with Ukraine's actively engaged troops that this is a difficult, though possible task. Russia is putting up staunch resistance here after their initial collapse and retreat to the Berkhivka reservoir. While they are on the wrong side of the Bakhmutovka river, they have several fairly secure points where they can cross, such as the city center of Bakhmut. Ukraine will have to commit far more firepower than what they have currently involved to collapse the salient and push Russia all the way back to the Bakhmut outskirts in this area. That said, it is still a vulnerable area for Russia, and their need to guarantee that it is adequately defended will detract from Russia's ability to defend elsewhere should Ukraine's long awaited counteroffensive materialize imminently.
On that note, Turkey announced that the Black Sea grain deal has been extended for an additional two months. Tomorrow, May 18th, is the official renewal date. Erdogan announcing the renewal gives him a boost shortly before the runoff presidential elections, but also by being a vaguely neutral party, will hopefully help to prevent the issues that arose last time when Russia and Ukraine disputed how long they had mutually agreed to extend the grain deal by. I still have my suspicions that Ukraine's counteroffensive will begin in earnest shortly after the grain deal is officially extended, though it's worth noting that there have been minimal rumors of late of an impending offensive or of mass movements. Ukraine does typically have good OPSEC and have launched surprise offensives successfully before (see: Kharkiv), but I'd still be expecting to encounter more chatter than I am.
In an extremely rare admission of western operatives working in Ukraine, it was reported that the United States sent a small team to assess the damage done to the Patriot battery in Kyiv, and determined that only a minimal amount of damage was done and that it didn't need to be pulled out of Ukraine for repairs. A few hours later, it was announced that repairs were completed and that the battery was fully operational. Ukraine has tracked down six individuals responsible for filming air defense activities in Kyiv recently, which is currently against the law in Ukraine due to the need to keep Ukraine's air defense systems secure. That said, the activities of the Patriot battery were caught on CCTV (albeit from quite a distance), and Russia is able to track the location of Patriot batteries.
Doubling down on their claim that they had destroyed the battery, Russia then torpedoed any credibility they had had with the matter by declaring improbably that they had destroyed an additional five batteries and a radar site, while also disputing Ukraine's tally of eighteen missiles fired against Kyiv, instead saying that they had only fired six. That makes for six missiles hitting seven targets. While technically possible, that is extremely unlikely. This might have been plausible had these claims been made prior to tonight's (yet again, large) missile barrage against Kyiv, but they weren't.
On the note of dubious claims, Ukraine today declared that they had killed over 200,000 Russian troops. It's a symbolic benchmark, though one which likely isn't grounded in reality. The number far exceeds western estimates, including those which were leaked. I could, maybe, buy the number as being plausible if it's inclusive of all PMCs, DPR/LPR forces, and includes wounded in action, missing in action, and those taken prisoner of war. It's worth highlighting that the initial invasion force was smaller than 200,000, so this is quite the number that Ukraine is putting out there.
Tensions have spiked in Moldova after elections in the autonomous Gagauzia region put a pro-Russian candidate in the lead. This is pretty unsurprising as the enclave has long-standing ties to Russia even after Moldova's independence. However, the winning candidate comes from the Ilan Shor Party, named after Ilan Shor. Shor is an exiled Moldovan oligarch wanted for numerous financial crimes, as well as accusations that he tried to undermine Moldova to put the country back into Russia's orbit. The election has faced accusations of irregularities and fraud, leading the central Moldovan government to conduct police raids through Gagauzia to find evidence of electoral fraud. It's a high risk move; if Moldova fails to turn up convincing evidence, it will make Moldova's pro-west government look authoritarian and punitive towards dissenters, which could threaten to unravel the country which has already faced off numerous destabilization efforts by Russia over the past year. If the raids turn up convincing evidence of fraud, Russia's influence in Moldova will take a substantial hit.