The front is increasingly slowing down in Kharkiv oblast. Russian forces are pushing through some rural areas, but progress for them remains fairly slow. Vovchansk is still witnessing substantial street battles, with fires eating across much of the city center. Russia has managed to take most of the northern part of the city and a portion of the city center, north of a local river. Ukraine still retains a presence in the north, however. The part south of the river is likely fully under Ukrainian control. The river very well may end up becoming the dividing line, though it is hardly a major river. But it could actually as a convenient defensive line for Ukraine to fall back upon, if necessary.
Various Ukrainian officials have warned that they expect the overall situation to get worse before it gets better. This I think is a fair assessment, seeing as Russia has a sizable force parked outside of Sumy that has yet to enter the fray. Furthermore, Ukraine's energy grid is struggling immensely currently. Rolling, unscheduled, blackouts hit almost the entire country today as the warmer weather combined with substantial harm done to the grid by Russia is straining it.
New imagery has merged of Belbek airbase, which Ukraine pummeled for two nights in a row. The first night destroyed much of the Russian air defenses around the base. Evidently, Russia neglected to relocate their sensitive equipment after the way was cleared for a secondary strike. Russia lost several warplanes. Some will likely be salvaged, but will be out of commission for a while. Some are completely destroyed. A fuel warehouse was also destroyed, and local partisans reported that a warehouse containing a large amount of munitions for Russian warplanes was also destroyed in the attack. Furthermore, it is claimed that thirteen Russian soldiers were killed between the two attacks.
For the third straight night, Ukraine launched a deep strike, but this time, the attack was not against Belbek airbase in Crimea. The target was instead the Russian port city of Novorossiysk, the largest port on the Black Sea that is internationally recognized as part of Russia. A significant part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has gradually rebaded here after repeated Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. The attack tonight reportedly consisted of several dozen drones. The port is reported to have suffered from partial blackouts as well. Video shows massive volleys of Russian air defense missiles being launched. It's far too soon to know what was hit, but there's a very high chance that Russia's fleet was targeted. Ukraine has also threatened a blockade on Russia's Black Sea activities in retaliation for Russia's own attempted embargo on Ukraine, so the actual port facilities may have been the target as well. Furthermore, the city is an important hub for Russian oil. Especially with Ukraine facing some if its harshest blackouts to date, a retaliatory attacks against Russia's energy infrastructure would be very in line with Ukrainian operations.
Ukraine's partners are looking at additional aid for Ukraine, particularly in light of the substantial struggles they are currently undergoing with energy. Denmark today made a new announcement, declaring further military support for Ukraine worth more than $800 million USD. The United States has also announced that a new military aid package is in the works for Ukraine.
There were a trio of notable events in European political affairs today. Fico, the somewhat pro-Russian leader of Slovakia, seems to have survived an assassination attempt from the other day, but is still in intensive care. With the would be assassin in custody and identified, some interesting things from his past were uncovered. Notably, he has tied to Russian-backed groups. However, he has also expressed dissatisfaction with the Slovakian government from the other direction as well, so his exact motives are a bit hard to pin down. Slovakia today declared that they believe that he was a lone wolf, and was not acting on behalf of any foreign governments, effectively ruling out hypothetical Russian backing of the plot. Had Russia been involved, it would have risked a massive surge in tensions between the EU and NATO, as Slovakia is a member of both, and Russia. The next major story relates to the Netherlands. It's very fractured parliament has cobbled together a government which includes far right groups and populist farmers, the same demographic which has caused issues for Ukraine in countries such as Poland. However, the new Dutch government has pledged to continue support for Ukraine. As a key player for getting Patriot batteries and F-16s to Ukraine, this is very welcome news for Ukraine. And finally, Moldova has formalized a planned referendum on joining the EU this autumn. Support for the EU arguably runs ahead of the current pro-western government, and could drag it across the finish line with this year's elections. And even if it fails to do so, provided it passes, it would be difficult for a more pro-Russian government to defy the referendum. Moldovan progress towards joining the EU in such a scenario would almost certainly be halted, but Moldova would also fall short of pivoting all the way back to Russia's sphere of influence.
Putin today visited China. There were no major announcements, but China did more or less endorse Russia's view that there needs to be a political settlement to the war. Russia's view of a political settlement is of course at this time effectively a complete destruction of Ukraine as an independent state. It would formalize the annexation of several oblasts to Russia (including territory that they have yet to capture), enforce harsh limits on Ukraine's military, prevent it from joining any western blocs, hosting foreign military personnel, and so on, based upon Russia's previous offers. All this would do is allow Russia to fully rebuild its military in a couple of years before finishing off the job. Ukraine has been trying hard to get China to visit the upcoming Ukrainian-led summit in Switzerland. China has already declined to attend, but this is a further signal of their disinterest.