Bakhmut is getting increasingly closer to falling, as PMC Wagner troops advanced further within the "citadel", the heavily fortified western district of Bakhmut. Ukraine retains positions in a few other districts of Bakhmut, but the citadel is likely the most difficult of the remaining positions for PMC Wagner to capture. PMC Wagner however has been districted by the failures of the Russian army, as their troops faltered along the flanks. PMC Wagner sent forces to the Berkhivka reservoir area to stop the collapse of the front here. There have been sporadic rumors of continued Ukrainian advances along this front, but little to back it up. It's a different story south of Ivanivske, where PMC Wagner took over positions at Klischiivka, but not elsewhere. Ukraine cleared Russian troops out of a several square kilometer region along the east side of the canal. This region is still fairly low, but Ukraine is starting to recapture higher ground, though Russia retains control over the highest ground around Klischiivka, as well as Klischiivka itself. However, Russian command posts in and around Klischiivka have been shredded, and Ukrainian artillery has been hammering both PMC Wagner and Russian army reinforcements trying to reach the general Klischiivka area.
Slightly to the south, Ukraine has largely collapsed the Russian bridgehead in the Kurdyumivka area. Russia never really established a firm presence in the area, but Ukrainian troops are reportedly advancing quite close to the settlement of Kurdyumivka, which sits on a key crossing point along the canal.
Ukraine also advanced against Russia in the Dnipro river delta yet again, evicting Russian forces from another island. Kruglik island was the last of the major islands immediately nest to the city of Kherson which still had a notable Russian military presence. With Russian forces no longer able to maintain a viable presence on the island, the intermittent shelling of the city of Kherson might decrease slightly as Russia was deprived of a key location for spotters.
Today saw probably the most explosive stories to come from the Teixeira leaks. The Washington Post, based on these documents and conversations with anonymous Ukrainian and American officials, confirmed that as early as January of this year Prigozhin has been in talks with Ukraine. He even met with Ukrainian intelligence operatives in an unspecified African country. Prigozhin himself implicitly confirmed the reporting today, joking that he was still in Africa meeting with Budanov (the head of Ukraine's military intelligence). The reported substance of Prigozhin's discussions are nothing short of treasonous. Allegedly, he was offering to provide Russian army locations to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine withdrawing from Bakhmut and its immediate surroundings. Obviously, as the battle for Bakhmut still continues months after these talks began, they went nowhere. Reportedly both the United States and Ukraine were not trusting that this wasn't a trap. Which, given that Prigozhin is still alive, seems quite reasonable. However it does also seem in character, as he seems to prioritize his ability to make profit above all else, and that requires him to have his elite core of PMC Wagner fighters still intact. Allegedly the Kremlin was aware of his discussions, but it was unclear if they knew whst his reported offer was. If Prigozhin's offer was genuine, it shows that the divide between and egos of top Kremlin officials and Prigozhin are far more severe than previously known. It also shows that Russia, for better or for worse, needs PMC Wagner despite their horrific reputation for committing war crimes and Prigozhin's possible double dealing.
After visiting Italy, the Vatican City, and Germany, Zelenskyy took a surprise visit to France. Having visited now three of Ukraine's largest foreign backers in two days, it feels as if counteroffensive plans are likely being finalized. Germany's massive recent pledge of support was probably in part to reassure Zelenskyy that Ukraine would still have enough equipment to hold the line should their offensive fail. While Germany's military package includes a very wide array of equipment, France made a much more narrow pledge, but still an important one. France promised to train several Ukrainian battalions, and to transfer over additional tens of light tanks and other armored vehicles in the future.
However, Ukraine did receive some disappointing, albeit unsurprising, international news today as it was reported that NATO would not be extending a membership offer during their July summit. Instead, Ukraine is expected to receive unspecified security guarantees. I presume that these will take the aid of further military aid packages, additional training of Ukrainian troops, and ways to help Ukraine further integrate with EU and NATO bureaucratic, logistical, and infrastructure standards and methods.
Turkish elections were held today, with Erdogan narrowly falling short of the outright majority he needed to avoid a runoff per most election tallies. The exact election results have been in dispute, with cyber attacks against several sites, including the State Election Council (YSK), further obfuscating the situation. With the YSK declining to provide any official results until every ballot is uncounted, there is a lot of uncertainty. However, I am operating under the assumption that there will be a runoff, and that the runoff results will give Erdogan another term. While Erdogan hasn't been a friend of Putin as it pertains to Ukraine (or Syria, or a number of other conflicts), there's no doubt that Erdogan is Putin's preferred candidate. With Erdogan likely to win, Putin won't have to deal with the headache of a firmly pro-west Turkish government. With a runoff likely, it will also delay the accession of Sweden to NATO even further.