Gabriel B
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Ukraine - May 13, 2023

Ukraine - May 13, 2023

May 14, 2023

Intense fighting has continued around Bakhmut, thought the situation is approaching a stalemate. Ukraine advanced some west of the Bakhmutovka river, north and west of Bakhmut, but failed to make major advances. Likewise, Russia advanced slightly within the city of Bakhmut, though their advances were not particularly noteworthy. Ukraine also according to a singular source advanced and secured Klischiivka, southwest of Bakhmut. If true, this would dramatically reshape the entire battle for Bakhmut. However, other sources have claimed that Ukraine merely heavily shelled Klischiivka. Regardless, it's clear that Ukraine is attempting to retake the Bakhmut exurb if they haven't already. I am leaning towards Ukraine having not having retaken the town yet, due to the back of corroboration. But the fact that it is even a question is a testament to the struggles that Russian troops are facing in the area.

Ukraine's counteroffensive has yet to arrive, if one excludes the ongoing shaping operations around Bakhmut. Zelenskyy, after stating that it was delayed, has promised that it will arrive soon. He very much so dodged any details, declaiming to provide a specific timeframe or location as to when it would happen, simply saying that Russia, and more broadly, the world, would know that it happened once it happened.

Today was a rough day for Russian aviation. Russia managed to lose a total of four aircraft over Byransk oblast, Russia. Russia lost two warplanes, an Su-35 and an Su-34, as well as two Mi-8s (helicopters). At least one of the helicopters was a highly modernized electronic warfare variation, of which Russia is believed to only have around twenty. Thus, the loss of one or two of these helicopters is a major blow to their electronic warfare capabilities. Especially when taking into account the loss of a Russian helicopter yesterday in Crimea. There have been several theories as to the loss of Russia's aircraft in Bryansk today, but none seem to be definitive. They range from a Ukrainian Patriot battery (which Russia can track) being responsible, to a Ukrainian scouting party entering Russian territory to shoot them down to friendly fire. Ultimately, Russia has taken heavy blows to their airpower. Regardless of the reason, they will need to reasses their use of airpower against Ukraine.

Russia launched two waves of drone strikes against Ukraine, one early in the morning and one late at night. Russia destroyed some Ukrainian ammunition depots in Ternopil and Khmelnytskyy, far away from the front in Ukraine's western regions. These strikes help to balance out similar strikes against Russian depots, such as those which have come under fire recently in Luhansk. Speaking of, Luhansk was subjected to several additional strikes today, further proving that Ukraine is likely using their newly delivered Storm Shadow missiles against the city.

Zelenskyy visited Italy and Vatican City. While cagey, he and other top Ukrainian officials strongly suggested that Italy promised new, unprecedented aid for Ukraine. My thinking is that Italy likely pledged new warplanes for Ukraine, but that this is to not get be publicly announced yet. However, I want to emphasize that this is purely conjecture on my part. Zelenskyy followed this up with a visit to Germany, which earlier in the day announced an unprecedented €2.7 billion euro military aid package for Ukraine. This will serve to deflect a large amount of criticism against Germany for falling behind with assisting Ukraine, given the large size of their population and economy. With Germany now being able to dodge such criticisms, critiques of Hungary and other recalcitrant EU and/or NATO members will likely ramp up.

Hungary is of particular interest today, as fallout from the Teixeira leaks continued today. Zelenskyy reportedly authorized strikes deep into Russia earlier this year (which any observer of the conflict should be unsurprised by) and also publicly mulled bombing the Druzhba oil pipeline to Hungary in order to forcibly break their dependence on Russian energy supplies. The lastest leak paints Zelenskyy as both more and less hawkish than his advisors, variously advocating for harsher actions against Russia, and at times pushing for more restrained actions than what Ukraine's leading generals were advocating for.

Reports that Lukashenko is ill received new life today, as he visited a hospital for a few hours with an escort blocking any access to him. It's unknown why he visited, though speculation has been rampant that Lukashenko either had a heart attack or symptoms mirroring one. The more conspiratorial theories have posted that Lukashenko suffered from a heart attack due to poisoning by Putin or his intelligence agencies. I personally find such theories as fairly improbable as Lukashenko has largely supported Putin. While Belarus under Lukashenko hadn't outright invaded Ukraine, they would likely lose, which Putin is likely aware of. In addition, Lukashenko's ouster would certainly see either or both of Belarus' exiled governments make an attempt to seize power, likely leading to sustained mass unrest in Belarus, which would be against Putin's interests.

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