Gabriel B
15 supporters
Ukraine - May 11, 2023

Ukraine - May 11, 2023

May 12, 2023

At long last, Ukraine's counteroffensive has arrived. Or at least, that's what virtually every Russian milblogger is saying, finally aligning with Prigozhin's long-standing claims. However, this was no act of solidarity with him. A series of local counterattacks in and around Bakhmut have handed momentum back to Ukraine, and caused mass panic among the Russian milblogger community. Ukraine has said remarkably little on the subject; in fact, Zelenskyy said that the offensive was to be delayed because they lack the necessary equipment to launch it without taking heavy casualties. Ukraine is keeping a very tight grasp on their operational security, so a lot of what the Russian milbloggers are saying is difficult to verify. The Russian Ministry of Defense also put out a statement, denying that Ukrainian forces made breakthroughs in various points along the front.

Starting with what I am reasonably confident on, Ukraine's recent efforts to throw back Russian forces from the Ivanivske and Khromove supply lines to Bakhmut likely had much more success today. Ukraine advanced probably close to a kilometer at points south of Ivanivske, along the eastern side of the canal. Some Russian milbloggers painted this advance as a broad one as well, though there is little to back that up that is publicly available as of now. Russian troops reportedly abandoned Klischiivka, with PMC Wagner taking over their positions. Ukraine also launched an attack further to the south at Kurdyumivka, a key crossing point along the canal, where Russia has tried repeatedly to break across. Ukraine still very much so has an uphill battle (figuratively and somewhat literally) to reach Klischiivka, and the front is still closer to Ivanivske than to Klischiivka. However, that an advance to Klischiivka is now in the realm of possibility from the north, west, and south, is quite remarkable. Capturing Klischiivka could change the course of the battle for the southern half of Bakhmut, as it would give Ukraine an additional vantage point, and would overlook one of Russia's supply lines heading I to southern Bakhmut.

Similarly, Ukraine threw back Russian troops from the edge of Bohdanivka and Khromove, pushing Russian troops in a broad arc back towards Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, and Yahidne. If Ukraine's offensive here continues to develop to the point where Ukraine can capture these Bakhmut suburbs, they will be in position to disrupt Russian supplies to Bakhmut from the north. Should Ukraine manage to recapture Klischiivka in the south, and Yahidne and Berkhivka in the north, Russia will still have control over the large majority of Bakhmut and have the most secure supply lines, from the east. But the battle would be far more balanced, and the imminent threat of encirclement that Ukraine has been staving off for months will have ended.

But perhaps the most notable advance, while being the smallest, was in Bakhmut. Ukraine recaptured the Industrial College in southwestern Bakhmut, preventing Russia from splitting the Ukrainian garrison in Bakhmut in half (they still would have been connected, outside of Bakhmut though even had Russia kept advancing). Russian forces advanced elsewhere in the city though; per Prigozhin, over 200 meters.

Ukraine also launched an attack at the Mayorsk train station, at the north of Horlivka. Horlivka is one of the largest cities under Russian control in Donetsk oblast. Normally combat for the railroad intersection here is unremarkable, as the front has been quite stable since the February 2022 invasion at this region. However, it is situated to the south of Kurdyumivka, and thus in conjunction with Ukraine's attacks elsewhere, it is part of a pattern of Ukrainian troops pinning down Russian forces at key points in Donetsk oblast while Ukraine makes strides in the Bakhmut area.

Ukraine also launched an operation between Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka, seizing a broad but shallow swath of territory, including some on the opposing bank of a local minor river. This advance will further strain Russia's grip over most of Pavlivka.

Ukraine also, surprisingly, advanced near the city of Donetsk by advancing towards the suburb of Vodyane, between Pervomaiske and Avdiivka. The timing of this was crucial, as Russia today rapidly closed the ground between their positions and Avdiivka. With Russia closing on on the key suburb, Ukraine's advance is helping to keep supply lines open. It's worth noting that Russia's has yet to establish any real positions within Avdiivka, but they are close to being able to do so. Once they fully reach Avdiivka, I expect grueling urban combat to take place, similar to what we have seen at Marinka, Pervomaiske, and Bakhmut.

I'll now be touching on the claims made by Russian milbloggers that I am more sceptical of. A claim was circulating of a Ukrainian breakthrough in the advance of Soledar. This is, technically speaking, true if one were to draw a long line from Ukraine's advance in the Bohdanivka area to Soledar, ignoring the settlements in between. This is where I think this claim may have originated from, though it also wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine launched an assault against positions directly to the west of Soledar. However, I'd be expecting the milblogger community to be much more anxious and talkative about this than they have been. Another claim regards the Kherson region, where allegedly Ukraine is massing dozens of riverboats for a crossing attempt in the Beryslav area; such a crossing would likely be aiming to capture the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and dam. There seems to have been a minor Ukrainian disinformation campaign reporting on fighting in Nova Kakhovka to exploit Russian panic about this area. While I am sure Ukraine is eyeing up such an offensive, due to the highly risky nature, it would probably only be done as a secondary action of their primary offensive. And finally, the claim I am most dubious of, is that Ukraine is massing western tanks and other material in Kharkiv oblast for a massive push against the Russian city of Belgorod, capital of the oblast of the same name. With extreme reluctance by all of Ukraine's major backers, I have a very hard time imagining Ukraine deciding to outright attempt to occupy undisputed parts of Russia while much of Ukraine remains under occupation. It would almost certainly be used by Putin as an excuse for another mobilization as well.

On a different note, the UK announced that Ukraine has been supplied with air launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have been modified to be launched out of the warplanes that Ukraine currently has in its arsenal. They boast an impressive range, being able to hit at least 250 kilometers away, absolutely dwarfing the range of most of Ukraine's systems. However, their number was not made public; Ukraine may have just a handful. Russia's air defenses must also be taken into consideration, as they will limit where Ukrainian planes can fly before launching the missiles, restricting their range.

In international news, the Turkish elections are this weekend, and Russia has been roped in. Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate, has accused Russia of intervening in the elections in support of Erdogan. Putin and Erdogan are opposed to each other in Syria, but Kilicdaroglu threatening to largely stick to the EU for foreign policy would outweigh any benefits that Russia might reap from a less expansionist Turkish state in Syria. Should Erdogan lose power, Putin will have his work cut out for him to salvage relations with Turkey.

The United States has accused South Africa of secretly selling weapons to Russia. This has thrown South Africa into an uncomfortable position, which has (mostly) tried to portray itself as neutral when possible. It may also bring attention to the other BRICS countries, an international organization that receives way too much attention given that its two largest members, India and China, are major rivals. I feel the focus on BRICS is foolish, but I recognize that my views are in the minority here.

The United States has put out an absolutely blistering statement against Georgia, accusing the country of spreading "outrageous lies" against the DC-based International Republican Institute. The EU also very strongly suggested that Georgia adhere to EU standards on Russian direct flights, citing both Georgia's aspirations to join the EU, as well as EU sanctions against Russia's aviation industry which may reduce the safety of Russian flights.

Enjoy this post?

Buy Gabriel B a coffee

More from Gabriel B