Gabriel B
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Ukraine - May 08, 2023

Ukraine - May 08, 2023

May 09, 2023

Russia's grinding offensive in Bakhmut yielded minimal results today, as they barely managed to advance. And with that, Ukraine has held a sliver of Bakhmut up until May 9th, Russia's Victory Day, thus depriving Putin of a major propaganda boost. This is now the latest alleged deadline that has come and gone without Russia succeeding with taking Bakhmut. With Russian Victory Day parades already being reportedly scaled down dramatically in numerous cities (likely due to a lack of presentable military hardware that isn't being used against Ukraine), the lack of a real military victory to point to will sting even more.

However, it's not just Russian morale that is hurting. A recent poll showed that two thirds of Ukrainians are willing to fight until they reclaim all territory that Russia has seized. While an impressive figure, it is a notable drop from earlier polls which had support for fighting until a total Russian withdrawal in the eighties and nineties. I think that the primary contributing factor to this is the lack of Ukrainian military peogres for many months. For Ukrainian citizens, their daily lives are continuing to be disrupted by Russian missile and drone strikes, while Ukraine has hardly regained any territory whatsoever since last year. With two thirds still supporting the total eviction of Russian forces, Zelenskyy's current military policies still clearly have the support of a commanding majority, but the drop in support is something to pay attention to, particularly if it does not increase substantially once Ukraine's offensive kicks off (assuming that it has some success).

Outside of Bakhmut, today yet again saw little combat worth delving into the details of. However, Russia is increasingly showing signs of pessimism. In an increasingly broad arc along the front, Russia is reportedly ordering varying degrees of evacuations. This stretches from Skadovsk in south Kherson oblast (which is actually some ways away from the front) to close to Donetsk oblast when including the previously reported evacuations. But perhaps the most notable evacuation is that of the primarily Ukrainian staff at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Citing the possibility for "provocations" by Ukraine and uncertainty as to when and where Ukraine's offensive will be, Russia declared that they will be shutting down the plant. With Russia in effect kidnapping the staff, even if Ukraine reclaims the plant, they may have a major shortage of workers who would know how to operate the plant. With the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant being the largest in Europe and formerly providing a significant portion of Ukraine's energy output, being able to operate the plant will be a massive boost for Ukraine should they recapture the plant. But that of course requires skilled workers. Regardless, the plant being fully offline, instead of intermittently, is beneficial as the risk for a nuclear disaster is lessened. It's also beneficial from Ukraine's perspective as Russia can no longer use it to help power the territories that they have occupied.

As with the past several days now, today saw another large wave of strikes against Ukrainian cities far from the front. Yesterday's strike on Odesa is confirmed to have hit a Red Cross warehouse. A Red Cross mobile hospital in Mykolaiv was also reportedly damaged by a Russian missile strike. Russia has had issue with missile accuracy in the past, but I have a hard time believing that striking two Red Cross sites in a single night is a coincidence. Russia and their allies have shown zero qualms with attacking hospitals in other conflicts, and Russia has previously attacked hospitals in Ukraine as well.

Zelenskyy took the opportunity to declare today, May 8th as Victory Day, aligning Ukraine with most of Europe and spurning Russia's tradition of celebrating the date on May 9th. The 9th is still to be a holiday in Ukraine, Europe Day. Previously celebrated the third Saturday of May, the date now aligns with the European Union's celebration of the date. While pretty minimal in the grand scheme of things, it is still a pretty symbolic shift of Ukraine's heavy shift towards the European Union.

The United States is reportedly set to announce tomorrow a massive $1.2 billion USD package for Ukraine. Unlike previous ones, this one is explicitly designed to be a long term plan, and will be heavily focused on building up and sustaining Ukraine's air defense capabilities.

The European Union is drafting another sanctions package. Unlike previous ones, this one would take aim at third countries and companies which ro business with Russia; particularly China. Several Chinese firms would be cut off from business with the EU, and EU exports to China would be slashed unless if China reduced trade with Russia. Incidentally, this also helps to fulfill a major foreign policy goal of the United States, which has been to get the EU to take a tougher stance on China, as part of an effort to discourage China from considering a military campaign to reunite Taiwan with mainland China.

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