Gabriel B
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Ukraine - May 07, 2024

Ukraine - May 07, 2024

May 08, 2024

Ukrainians units are increasingly publicly stating that they are finally receiving the long delayed American air, particularly artillery shells. The effect of this is pretty clear, as Russia's various offensives have slowed to a crawl over the past few days, with Russia only capturing Arkhanhelske and Kotlyarivka (which was already contested). Other locales such as Robotyne remains contested, and Russia's sizable advances through rural areas are now progressing much more slowly. Russia is still clearly the one with the tempo and momentum, but Russia's overall offensive has certainly been blunted some. Given Ukraine's better performance the past couple of days it's quite possible that Ukraine would still be holding onto key places such as Ocheretyne had aid from the United States not been delayed for half of a year. Avdiivka was likely doomed, once Russia secured the trash heap north of the city (providing them with a commanding line of sight advantage). But it could have been far more costly for Russia. Russia's already staggeringly high armored losses at Novomykhailivka could have been even more drastic, and the modified "turtle tanks" that Russia innovated would have never worked to help them penetrate into key strongholds such as Krasnohorivka if Ukraine had been supplied with adequate amounts of anti-tank weaponry, mines, or artillery shells. And importantly, Ukraine would not have burnt through much of their equipment designed for a future offensive (such as Abrams tanks) if they weren't made to use them defensively out of sheer desperation. In effect, the United States shot itself in the foot as much of the more expensive aid sent to Ukraine was effectively wasted thanks to the lack of followup with basic munitions and supplies to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy's plan to move ahead with eara pushing the Unmanned Systems Forces, a new branch of the Ukrainian military that would oversee drone warfare, has entered a new stage. Zelenskyy's cabinet officially signed off on the proposal, and it now goes to the Ministry of Defence to draft the relevant legislation to vote on. If established, it would be the first of its type of branch on the globe. It could indirectly help to alleviate some of Ukraine's personnel issues as well. Ukraine has established a type of recruitment center where prospects can request placement with a particular branch or unit. The Unmanned Systems Forces might prove to be popular, given that a significant part of it is likely to be away from the front, by nature of drone warfare. This in turn would lift some of the responsibility of drone warfare from soldiers at the front currently. At the risk of delayed communications, it would be one less thing for many Ukrainian soldiers to worry about, and soldiers with tablets could pick up more conventional weapons during skirmishes. I don't think drones being part of specific units at the front will ever go away (in fact, fundraising for drones for specific units has been moderately successful for Ukraine), due to the need for quick reaction times and communications, but stripping some of the unnecessary burdens from troops at the front would give Ukraine an edge.

Russia's posturing from yesterday persisted through today. Belarus even joined in, announcing nuclear drills of their own (they now have Russian nuclear weapons stationed don their territory). Despite that and a rather specific warning by Russia of an impending Ukrainian missile attack, nothing of note against Russia happened. Putin's inauguration went off without a hitch.

The inverse cannot be said, however. Zelenskyy's current term would ordinarily expire this month, but Ukraine's constitution prohibits elections during martial law, something which all three branches of government have concurred with. Russia has sought to amplify the minor amount of grumblings over this in order to try to divide Ukraine internally, as well as its image abroad. Russia has tried to discredit, oust, or outright kill Zelenskyy for the entire duration of the war; and today saw one of the most dramatic plots against him yet. Ukraine disrupted a grand assassination plot, orchestrated by two colonels who had been recruited by Russia. The targets were to be Zelenskyy, Budanov (the head of Ukraine's military intelligence), and Malyuk (who heads the Security Service of Ukraine). Malyuk stated that Budanov's movements were to be tracked, with h Russia then launching a missile to level whatever building he was in, followed by a drone swarm to finish off any survivors. This is remarkably similar to the threat that Russia had accused Ukraine of plotting yesterday, in which Ukraine was allegedly planning on saturating the air defenses of a target with drones before going on for the kill shot on the (still unnamed) target with a missile strike. While the order is inversed, it seems almost as if Russia was projecting. Regardless, the plot failed. Zelenskyy has previously survived many assassination attempts (he has publicly put the number in the double digits in the past), but Ukrainian officials noted that this was the highest level that known Russian agents were operating in Ukraine's military. The pair of colonels face up to life in prison for treason, pending the outcome of their trials.

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