Russia has launched another major effort to conquer Bakhmut, inching closer towards a heavily fortified district at the western edges of the city, which will likely be Ukraine's last stand at Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from a few blocks of the city yet again today. Russia's rate of advance continues to be incredibly slow, yet fairly consistent. Russia's major push today will have to be drastically more successful than their previous ones if they are to capture the city in time for Victory Day. At this point in time, if I had to bet, I'd gamble that Ukraine holds on through May 9th. With the hollowed out remains of individual buildings growing to become defining features in footage of the front over the past few days, the battle for the city is increasingly being locked down, at least around the one built up district in western Bakhmut. The area is roughly one square kilometer; quite small, but the tall buildings provide Ukrainian troops with vantage points overlooking both the routes to Khromove and Ivanivske.
Ukraine received a dose of bad news regarding Bakhmut as Prigozhin reversed course. He claimed that he received a document from the Kremlin promising his requested ammunition will be delivered. If true, Prigozhin's incredibly risky gambit may have paid off. With PMC Wagner allegedly to receive more and better equipment, they will remain one of the more prominent and elite groups fighting on behalf of Moscow, helping to keep Prigozhin's image afloat. I imagine that he is hoping that this elevated stature means that he will be viewed as indispensable. With PMC Wagner apparently not cycling out of Bakhmut, there will be no opportunity for Ukraine to take advantage of a major troop rotation. It's unclear if the units that Kadyrov pledged will still be sent to Bakhmut.
Ukraine has made two very minor advances. One is north of Bakhmut, where they gained a slice of territory to the west of Sakko i Vantsetti. Nestled among several streams and sitting among some important junctions, Sakko i Vantsetti is small but a Ukrainian recapture of the village would significantly hamper Russia's efforts to advance on Ukraine's stronghold of Siversk. On the west bank of the Bakhmutovka river and technically west of Siversk, Sakko i Vantsetti could be a hub for Russian raids against Ukraine's supply lines to Siversk in the event that Russia launches a major push for the town.
The other location Ukraine advanced slightly is near Kupyansk, Ukraine advanced to the southern edge of the village of Vilshana. Notably, Vilshana is very thin, and very wide; Ukraine doesn't need to advance much further before they're overruning the settlement. Recapturing Vilshana would allow Ukraine to strike at Russia's rear at Tavilzhanka, making any Ukrainian efforts to reopen the Oskilr over crossing at Dvorichna significantly easier to pull off. This in turn would greatly facilitate a hypothetical Ukrainian offensive into northern Luhansk oblast.
Russia launched yet another large wave of drone strikes today, particularly against Kyiv and Odesa. Ukrainian air defense shot down many, but several also hit their targets. The past several days have seen far more frequent drone strikes than the preceding few weeks; I am presuming that this is an effort by Russia to try to discourage Ukraine from bringing a large amount of air defense systems to cover their offensive, wherever and whenever that might be.
Relatedly, Ukraine has deployed three radars manufactured by an Israel company. The three are part of a reported batch of sixteen radars. However, these were not transferred directly from Israel. A Lithuanian NGO had raised the funds necessary to purchase them directly, and then transferred them to Ukraine. Still, Ukraine openly being in possession of and displaying Israeli air defense technology is a sign of warming relations between the two countries.
Russian warplanes on May 5th intercepted a Polish plane conducting a patrol over the Black Sea to crash. The Polish plane was operating as paer of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (also known as Frontex) and was in international airspace. Frontex has subsequently announced a pause to their Black Sea operations in response. This is one of several similar incidents involving Russian warplanes and western planes and drones in international airspace over the Black Sea over the past year or so.