Russia has managed to secure most of southwest Bakhmut, the stretch of the city running along the main highway to Ivanivske. There are still several areas of Ukrainian resistance in this part of the city, but Russia has a decisive advantage. Ukraine's remaining positions in the part of the city are, in my view, unsustainable. With the battle for this area likely concluding soon, Ukraine will be left with just the westernmost portion of Bakhmut. Russia is advancing here too, though more slowly. They are also continuing to push on Khromove from the north. If Khromove falls, most of Ukraine's options for retreating by road will be eliminated, though a forested area to the south of Khromove would give some cover to retreating Ukrainian troops before it opens up into a field, which depending on weather, may or may not be easy to cross.
Prigozhin put out a remarkable video today. Standing in a field with several dozen corpses of PMC Wagner fighters, who he claimed all died in a single day in Bakhmut, he went on a two minute profanity and slur laced tirade against Shoigu and Gerasimov, calling them both out by name. He blamed them for ammunition shortages (claiming PMC Wagner was only getting around thirty percent of their needs met), leading to unnecessary carnage. A reference to the sons of Kremlin officials making YouTube videos also feels like a possible reference to Kadyrov and his followers, who are notorious for posting fake combat videos on TikTok and other social media platforms. Prigozhin has done some brash stuff before, and his feuds with top Kremlin officials haven't exactly been secret. But I've never seen such a public and direct broadside from him before. Prigozhin at least used to be quite close to Putin; I suspect that Prigozhin's influence over Putin since February 2022 has decreased, and this was a last, desperate effort to break through the influence of Shoigu, Gerasimov, and other high ranking military and political officials. Unlike them, Prigozhin has been much more willing to at least publicly admit that things aren't always going as well as they should be for Russia. This whole act I believe is a gambit, and should it fail, Prigozhin's life is now likely forfeit. Russia, after all, is rather notorious for the assassination of dissidents, both inside and outside of Russia's borders. A large number of dissidents of course seem to also have extremely poor luck with accidents that don't necessarily point directly back to the Kremlin, but there is a very clear pattern. Prigozhin knows this, and I feel he would have only lambasted top officials like this if he was truly desperate. Notably, he was careful to avoid implicating Putin.
Intense shelling in the Zaporizhzhia region and drone strikes at various points across Ukraine and Russia have continued. In a much publicized incident, a Ukrainian TB2 drone lost contact with its handler and flew over central Kyiv; Ukraine's military made the decision to shoot it down so that way it wouldn't fall and harm people. This happened around the time as some drone attacks by Russia against the city as well.
Ukrainian drone strikes hit Sevastopol yet again. Oil refineries continue to be major targets as well; one in Rostov oblast was struck. Russia intercepted drones over Voronezh and Rostov oblasts. Both border Ukraine but have largely been spared as the only oblast of Ukraine they border is Luhansk, which is almost entirely occupied by Russia. An administrative building in Moscow was set ablaze; it's unknown if this was due to a drone strike, sabotage, or an accident.
Zelenskyy gave his speech to the Hague today. He won additional support from the Netherlands and Belgium. Notably, the Netherlands said there was no taboo regarding the donation of F-16s to Ukraine, and said that the Netherlands was working with other countries to try to get some to Ukraine. During his speech, Zelenskyy acknowledged that Ukraine will not be able to join NATO while the war is ongoing. Beyond that, he said nothing too surprising. He underscored his desire for a full-fledged tribunal to try Russian officials for war crimes, and joked that he'd like to see the other Volodymyr (referring to Putin, who has the Russian version of Zelenskyy's first name) appear in the Hague.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have spilled over into Turkey. At the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, a member of the Russian delegation ripped a Ukrainian flag bearing the coat of arms out of the hands of a member of the Ukrainian delegation, prompting the Ukrainian delegate to punch the Russian one and reclaim the flag.
Israel's drift towards Ukraine took a major steal today with the announcement that Israel supplied Ukraine with a missile detection system. It is reportedly being actively tested in Kyiv. It is to be connected to Ukrainian radars, to help to narrow down the scope of where Russian missiles are heading towards. The goal is to narrow down the areas where an inbound missile might hit, meaning that fewer air raid sirens will need to be used. This will decrease the disruption to daily life that Ukrainian citizens experience during Russia's missile barrages.