The situation in Bakhmut was fairly stable today, with Russia barely advancing, if at all. Ukraine's garrison here is still likely on their last legs, but they have managed to make it another day closer to Putin's alleged imposed deadline of the start of May 9th for the complete capture of the city. With yesterday's massive shelling apparently able to dislodge Ukrainian troops, Russia is running out of options other than a costly and massive wave assault to expel Ukraine's remaining forces from Bakhmut by the deadline. Prigozhin claimed that Ukraine's offensive has begun, which was accompanied by yet another request for additional munitions. Ultimately, I am not taking Prigozhin at his word here, as he very much so has the motivation to play up the challenges that PMC Wagner are dealing with. I think it's reasonably safe to assume that shaping operations have started (more on Ukraine's disruption campaign later), but that is all. I certainly feel it's disingenuous to refer to that as the offense itself.
Bilohorivka, Ukraine's last stronghold in Luhansk oblast, has come under a fierce assault. The village in May 2022 proved to be a major embarrassment for Russia, as Russia lost a massive amount of equipment and manpower in a matter of days after a failed river crossing; the village eventually changed hands a few times before Ukraine firmly established control. Russian troops are now advancing from the southeast, on the opposite side of Bilohorivka from the river. However, there have been some rumors circulating that Ukraine managed to surround and trap around a hundred Russian troops. Russia's advances today thus may come at an extremely high cost.
Ukraine launched a sizable reconnaissance-in-force operation to the south of Orikhiv, in the direction of Tokmak. While this may not be the primary thrust of Ukraine's offensive, I fully expect this area will see a substantial Ukrainian push during the opening days or weeks of the offensive (depending on if it's a blitz or not). Tokmak is a vital town to hold, regardless of if Ukraine pivots west towards Enerhodar, guns south for Melitopol, or swings east towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.
The IAEA has accused Russia of planting explosives around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in particular at unit 4. The IAEA also said that a landmine was detonated at the plant in April (I'm presuming it was an accident). This information was passed along to Ukraine's State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate. This news is pretty damning towards Russia's continued grip on the nuclear power plant, and is some of the firmest language and action the IAEA has taken in favor of Ukraine.
The drone war between Ukraine and Russia dramatically escalated early today, as two drones struck the dome on top of the Senate Palace, one of the buildings which makes up the Kremlin. The Senate Palace in of itself is extremely secure and inaccessible to the public; most of the exterior isn't even visible. The first drone hit the dome directly, doing minimal damage. Around fifteen minutes later, a second drone flew right by the flagpole sitting atop the dome and exploded, falling on the dome, yet again doing slight damage to the dome. While the damage done was superficial, it struck deep at Russia's psyche. The attack was a major embarrassment for Russia's military as they have numerous air defense installations around Moscow. One of the drones even flew around 700 meters away from one such installation, comfortably within its operating range. And yet, the drone reached its destination. Officially, Putin lives in the Senate Palace, though he owns numerous lavish properties and, presumably, usually lives out of them; it was quickly announced that Putin would be working out of one of these locations today. Even so, Russia accused Ukraine of trying to assassinate Putin, and vowed vengeance in the future. Putin's right hand man Medvedev openly called for the killing of Zelenskyy in response. It's possible that the drone was launched from Ukraine or from cells (either Ukrainian or domestic opposition to Putin) within Russia in or near Moscow; both options are deeply humiliating to Russia.
Zelenskyy denied responsibility for the attacks on the Kremlin, saying that Ukraine was not behind the attack. The United States also said that they had had no knowledge of the attack. Similarly, no Russian opposition groups (suspected fronts for Ukraine or otherwise) claimed responsibility.
Incidentally, Zelenskyy today took a previously unannounced trip to Helsinki, the capital of Finland for a summit of the Nordic countries. Zelenskyy met with the PMs of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, as well as the Finnish president. The leaders of the five countries, all members of the EU and/or NATO, spoke with Zelenskyy about their support of Ukraine, and for Ukraine's integration with the EU and NATO.
This was followed by another surprise visit, as Zelenskyy then left for the Hague, in Denmark. Zelenskyy is also expected to visit Germany later this month. All in all, Zelenskyy is suddenly seemingly very interested in traveling within NATO territory where before today, he rarely left Ukraine. It may be incidental (and I'm sure during his foreign visits he will be discussing plans for the upcoming offensive), but it certainly feels as if Ukraine at the very least may have signed off on the strikes on the Kremlin, and Zelenskyy knew he would be even more of a target over the next few weeks.
Wreckage of another drone was found near Moscow, as well. A Ukrainian drone strike hit yet another oil refinery, deep in Krasnodar Krai, which lies to the east of Crimea. Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian drone over Feodosia, which is to the west of the Kerch Strait Bridge. An airfield in Bryansk oblast was also hit; a Russian An-124 military transport aircraft was reportedly damaged during the attack. A Ukrainian drone also struck a water tower in a village in Belgorod oblast, doing minor damage.
For their part, after the attack on the Kremlin, Russia launched numerous drone strikes against many Ukrainian cities. Kyiv, of course, was a target. Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Sumy were also hit. Kherson was also massively shelled, leading to the deaths of almost two dozen civilians. A Ukrainian oil depot in Kirovohrad, west of Dnipro, was also hit by Russian several Russian drones. Given Russia's statement that they would seek vengeance in the future, these attacks were likely only part of the expected response to the Kremlin attack. It's probably wise for Russia that they are waiting; with Ukraine's offensive likely to kick off in the next couple of weeks, Russia will want to preserve their missiles to use against key military targets rather than expend them now, when Ukraine still has time to adjust.