Yesterday's claimed Ukrainian offensive in Bakhmut seems to have resulted in failure, as Russia advanced further yet again today. Ukraine is down to just a sliver of Bakhmut remaining under their control. NASA's FIRMS, which tracks heat anomalies, shows the western part of Bakhmut as absolutely filled with heat anomalies; in this case, likely fires resulting from intense shelling of Ukrainian positions. With this in mind, I think it probable that yesterday's local offensive by Ukraine was an effort to briefly put Russia on the defensive so that Ukraine could evacuate key equipment and wounded personnel. The intense bombardment today certainly suggests that Russia is aiming to wrap up Bakhmut imminently, as not even the supply lines into Bakhmut were targeted with anywhere near as much vigor as Ukraine's positions within the city itself. If Russia can coerce a Ukrainian retreat, Russia can declare victory after nine months of fighting for the city while also sparing themselves further casualties.
A recent estimate by the United States had Russia taking around fifty thousand casualties (dead and wounded) in Bakhmut since the start of 2023, which for a city of seventy thousand people, is not sustainable for Russia. Russia will have to far exceed their performance at Bakhmut if they expect to win the war. Their only other plausible alternative is to simply use their superior population to entirely wipe out Ukraine's entire fighting force, but with the reported casualty ratios at Bakhmut between Russia and Ukraine, Russia would still, remarkably, fall short. A lot of critiques have been lobbed at Ukrainian leadership for sacrificing a lot of their elite units and a lot of munitions to try to hold Bakhmut against, generally speaking, inferior quality foes. That said, artillery shells and training can be replaced far more easily than an entire person. Whether or not this tradeoff was worthwhile for Ukraine is certainly not clear yet, and I think anyone who definitively says one way or the other is likely pushing an agenda. The tradeoff is certainly something to be cognizant of, especially once Ukraine's offensive begins, but I am of the firm belief that it cannot be determined whether or not it was worthwhile until we see how Ukraine performs in their offensive. Even then, I imagine it will be hotly debated unless if Ukraine abjectly fails or spectacularly exceeds expectations. Measuring success is also not as clear cut as some might imagine, but that will be a subject t delve deeper into at another time.
Ukraine and Russia are settling into a tit-for-tat over the past few days; Russia launches drone or missile strikes at Ukrainian cities, and Ukraine responds by launching their own drone strikes against important Russian logistical centers such as airports and oil depots. Today, Ukraine hit the Taman oil terminal, located about five miles on the far side of the Kerch Strait Bridge. The strike will of course significantly hamper the flow of fuel to Russian troops in the occupied portions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, but also was a highly symbolic gesture, indicating that Ukraine can hit the bridge again if they feel that it is worthwhile. Other notable Ukrainian operations today include Bryansk oblast, where a series of blasts derailed a freight train, a drone attack against a training base in Simferopol, Crimea, and an attempted assassination of a collaborationist deputy head of a police department in Melitopol. Put together, Ukraine is certainly testing Russia's responses.
Ukraine's parliament yet again extended martial law by a further ninety days, as the current extension was due to expire. Their decision to extend martial law is wholly unsurprising as Ukraine and Russia are still very much so at war, despite the relative lack of territorial changes over the past several months. The Rada also declared that Russia's official ideology is "Ruscism" (there are many alternate spellings), a portmanteau of "Russian" and "fascism". This is likely an effort to hit back at the Kremlin's portrayal of Ukraine as a Nazi state, and is likely an effort to deflect from the Rada's own missteps, such as when they publicly praised Bandera, a prominent Ukrainian fascis and nationalist icon from WW2, on social media.
The EU has solidified their arrangement regarding Ukrainian agricultural exports. Only a handful of products from Ukraine, but some major ones such as sunflower seeds and wheat, will be banned for a little over a month in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. All of the banned products will be allowed to pass through these countries to be sold elsewhere. Officially, the reasont eh EU provided for these measures were logistical hurdles in the markets for these products.
Fallout from the leak continues, but this time, it's nothing new from the documents themselves. Zelenskyy complained that he and Ukraine were left in the dark about the whole situation, and that he learned of the leaks through the news. If his claims are true, it certainly explains the very divergent reactions of the United States and Ukraine in the first few days after knowledge of the leak went mainstream; the United States was treating it as a serious matter while downplaying the severity somewhat, while Ukraine was insisting it was fake, probably under the assumption that they would have been clued in if the documents were legitimate.