Gabriel B
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Ukraine - March 30, 2024

Ukraine - March 30, 2024

Apr 17, 2024

The only notable changes along the front took place in Novomykhailivka, where the center, including now for the first time outlying areas north of the settlement, are fully under Russian control. With a firm Russian presence established north of Novomykhailivka, Ukrainian supply lines will now be even more difficult to maintain. Ukraine will probably be forced to abandon the remaining half of Novomykhailivka soon, as the rainy season grows near and as Russia makes slow, yet steady advances through the isolated town.

Ukrainian energy giant DTEK gas put out an alarming figure. After the attacks in March against Ukrainian infrastructure, DTEK has said that facilities responsible for 80% of their energy production have been damaged or outright destroyed. Fortunately, mild weather at the moment is alleviating some of the national need for energy. But obviously, that won't last forever, and there are still plenty of other viral things Ukraine needs energy for beyond heat regulation.

There has been a major shakeup within Zelenskyy's staff, as multiple advisors have been dismissed. The recent firing of Danilov as well as these half dozen dismissals are likely part of Zelenskyy's previously announced plans in February to shake up Ukrainian leadership in both the military and administrative spells. No reasons were provided for the recent dismissals, aside for Danilov who was appointed ambassador to Moldova. Zelenskyy has also stated that further shakeups will occur in the near future. Ultimately, I think these changes are worthwhile, particularly while the front is in a bit of a lull and Ukraine lacks offensive capabilities. Fresh command is useful for providing new perspectives and ideas, and it prevents people from growing complacent in their roles. But at the same time, rocking the boat is always risky. By doing these staffing changes now, the severity of any negative inpacts will be lessened compared to doing them during the height of an offensive.

After a lack of conversations about it for some time, France (by way of the parliament, not Macron) revived the hypothetical of sending armed forces to Ukraine. The recent French statement wasn't anything new, it was simply a reaffirmation of Macron's prior statements. But it does seem to have come a bit out of the blue, with both western and rhetoric regarding the possible deployment of western forces to Ukraine having calmed a bit recently. If I had to guess, it was in response to the violation of Polish air space by a Russian missile and a drone hitting Romania, but troops on the ground could only do so much to prevent these types of things from happening. Poland has floated the idea of shooting down projectiles that are within range but over Ukrainian air space. Short of a no fly zone, it would still offer protection to a sliver of Ukrainian territory, allowing Ukraine to ever so slightly provide themselves with better coverage. It could, hypothetically, also mean an airport such as at Uzhorod would be protected by western air defenses. This would satisfy a long running desire of Ukraine, to have air connections reestablished, but the major inhibiting factor has been making sure that any active airports would be adequately protected.

The EU has taken the unusual step of sanctioning a Turkish company, Southwind Airlines. Established shortly after Russia's fulls cake invasion of Ukraine, it operates with the explicit goal of keeping up the level of tourism between Russia and Turkey. Southwind Airlines is now banned in the EU. Amusingly, the EU ban actually came shortly after Finland, independently had done so. With Finland and Sweden now in NATO, it appears the acrimony between them and Turkey has returned, and the facade of goodwill is failing. It also means that Turkish aspirations to join the EU remain quite dead. Turkey had tried to force closer alignment during the accession process of Sweden to NATO, but those efforts failed. With the EU slapping sanctions on Turkish companies now, even just simply closer economic ties appear to be quite unlikely.

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