Gabriel B
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Ukraine - March 23, 2024

Ukraine - March 23, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Russian sources have claimed to have fully captured Ivanivske, located west of Bakhmut, but videographic proof is lacking. If the city has fallen, Ukrainian troops in Klishchiivka and Andriivka will be in a partial state of encirclement. The remaining supply lines to these villages will have to be through open areas, and across the canal network in the area. Ukraine may feel compelled to withdraw from these villages in the near future, which will entirely hand the Bakhmut area over to Russian troops. As for the Ivanivske area, the fall of the city will provide Russia with a crucial launching pad for future operations against the canal, as well as against the city of Chasiv Yar, which sits on both sides of the canal.

Russia has unleashed another massive barrage of missiles and drones at Ukraine for the third straight night. Missiles have targeted Kyiv again, cities closer to the front, and locations in far western Ukraine as well. The missiles in far western Ukraine prompted Poland to launch some warplanes to protect their airspace in the event that missiles cross over the border. Ukraine has assessed that the damage done yesterday to the Dnipro dam was focused on its hydroelectric capabilities, and that the dam itself is not in danger of collapse. Ukrainian authorities are working on trying to figure out whether or not Russia intends to destroy the dam, or if they will be satisfied with eliminating its energy producing potential.

Ukraine retaliated today, conducting a Storm Shadow strike on Sevastopol. Three missiles slammed into a major communications and intelligence center for the Russian Black Sea Fleet; the site was effectively leveled. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has suffered from major strikes on their land-based headquarters in the past. This latest strike only further adds to the struggles of the fleet, which has performed in a rather underwhelming manner against a country lacking an organized navy.

Russia's narrative regarding the terrorist attack in Moscow continues to flounder around without really sticking. Russia proclaimed that Ukraine opened a "window" for the terrorists to escape to. Ukraine categorically denied the accusations, and only one alleged suspect was found nearby. Even so, there were major holes with this particular story. Russia claimed he was close to the Belarusian and Ukrainian borders, but the scene of his interrogation (a forest) was geolocated on the opposite side of Kursk oblast. Russian security forces also committed crimes against humanity during the interrogation; I'd rather not go into details, but suffice to say, the video of his interrogation and torture was extraordinarily graphic. A second alleged suspect turned himself in; he was almost a full day away from Moscow, and thus could not have been responsible. Russia also accused two citizens of Tajikistan of being responsible. However, Tajikistan asserted that the two have been in the country since November, and thus also couldn't be responsible. Russia continues to maintain that Ukraine indirectly, and the RDK directly, was responsible. ISIS has continued to put out statements rejecting Russian claims, and eventually posted photos of the perpetrators prior to the attack. This was followed by first person views of the terrorists attacking the concert hall in Moscow, effectively proving that ISIS was responsible for the attack, contrary to Russian claims.

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