Russia has for the first time in a while launched a major wave of missiles against Ukraine. Their hypersonic Kinzhal missiles are reportedly involved a well, targeting Kyiv. Ukraine's air defenses were not impervious, but it is still too early to know the full extent of the damage.
Along the front, little changed. Russia is continuing to push hard west of Avdiivka, and reportedly captured a small portion of Tonenke. Russia also launched another push at Robotyne; Ukraine described the situation as "fluid" but did not express concerns about the hr possibility of a Russian breakthrough. Inside of Russia, the RDK and LSR have fully withdrawn. There were some flashes reported around the border village eif Kozinka in Belgorod oblast, but the RDK and LSR were repelled. Russia has heavily shelled the Ukrainian oblasts along the border in recent days, almost certainly as a retaliatory campaign in response to the RDK, LSR, and Sibir Battalion incursions into Russia.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu has made some rather bold claims about Russia creating a large number of new units. These numbers are extremely implausible, unless if a significant number of old and attrited units are dissolved entirely and reconstituted as these new units, or if Russia carries out another mobilization. It is likely just bluster, but it does match with assessments from western think tanks over the past couple of days, which have been warning that Putin may order a new mobilization now that the elections have concluded. I do not put much stock into this particular argument; the elections were not free and fair, so it's not as if Putin needed to worry about being punished at the ballot box. If a mobilization happens, it will be because of military realities. Through the date of the election there was little need to do something that would likely spark protests once again and detrsct from Russians industrial base, as Ukraine is significantly outgunned anyway. Throwing a bunch more conscripts at Ukraine would strain their defenses earlier but with Ukraine building new defensive lines and with Russia running somewhat low on things such as missiles, particular types of planes, and modern main battle tanks, this would only do so much. And it might even backfire, as Russia is trying to ramp up production for things such as missiles while also trying to rush restoration projects for things such as their dilapidated A-50s.
The Dutch Defense Minister was in Ukraine today. One of the top discussions was about the planned transfer of F-16s to Ukraine. Some things were clarified, particularly that 18 of the 24 F-16s pledged by the Netherlands will actually be sent to Romania, for training purposes. Of course, Ukrainian pilots are the primary recipient of F-16 training currently. While they wouldn't be able to be used for combat, it would also potentially give Ukraine a reserve of protected planes to draw from in the future if necessary. The Netherlands also announced new military aid packages pertaining to F-16s; munitions for the planes were promised, as were accompanying ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) drones. All of this suggests that the planes might actually be arriving in Ukraine in the relatively near future. The timeline for their delivery has been pushed back repeatedly and considerably; statements from western officials last year stated that they would arrive before 2023 ended. The most recent timeline offered has Ukraine receiving a handful of the planes in July; well over a half year late, and not in the numbers implied initially. The actions of the Dutch offer a glimmer of hope that they may arrive sooner.
Ukraine has decided to close public access to its controversial international sponsor of war list. While it has pressured countries and companies who still do business in Russia, it also upset many of Ukraine's allies as major corporations based in western countries were put on the list. Ukraine's government admitted that the list is poorly regulated and has possibly done them more harm than good. This also comes as Ukraine has publicly stated that they are hoping for accession talks with the EU to begin in June; the closing of the list may have been a private precondition for talks to begin.
The war of words regarding possible western involvement has increased. A top French general has stated that France could hypothetically deploy 20 thousand troops to Ukraine in under a month, while also overseeing the deployment of an additional 40 thousand allied troops during that time. Throwing fuel onto the fire, Poland said that it was an open secret that there are units from major western countries operating in Ukraine. They didn't explicitly say that these were official units, and not volunteers joining Ukraine's foreign legion, but it was certainly implied as Poland made sure to connect their statement to Scholz' comments on the subject.