Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 29, 2023

Ukraine - June 29, 2023

Jun 30, 2023

There have been a couple of sporadic claims that Ukraine has recaptured Klishchiivka, though I think these are probably premature. Ukrainian officials have claimed further advances in the areas but have yet to unambiguously state anything about entering, let alone capturing the settlement. There are claims about advancing and "working to take control" of the settlement, which is far too imprecise for me to feel confident in taking that as a claim that Ukrainian troops have entered Klishchiivka. Ukraine also claimed to have advanced over a kilometer in the Kurdyumivka area, though I am unsure as to where they are referring to, as a kilometer advance would actually put them past Kurdyumivka. Either this is a much delayed announcement, Ukraine crossed the canal and pushed through open areas, or it's an odd way to refer to a hypothetical Russian crossing attempt that would have then been repulsed. Given the lack of claims of Ukraine recapturing Kurdyumivka, I'm inclined to believe that it's simply a much delayed announcement, even with there having been geolocated footage of Ukrainian troops at the gates of Kurdyumivka two days ago.

Ukraine is continuing to apply heavy pressure to the north of Bakhmut, with a push in the Zaliznyanske and Dubovo-Vasylivka areas. Much as with the claim regarding Klishchiivka, Ukraine claims to be "working" on taking control over the Bakhmut suburb of Berkhivka. But the most notable Ukrainian claims about the area weren't territorial in nature; Ukraine has declared that they have local air superiority in the Bakhmut region. If true, it will be a harsh reversal for Russian troops, who have typically, at worst, enjoyed an environment where air power was fairly balanced and relatively unimportant on the battlefield. Ukraine has claimed that Russian troops are retreating from northern Bakhmut, though mentioned nothing about Ukrainian troops reentering northern Bakhmut. Russian sources have denied any retreats or Ukrainian advances, but have acknowledged that Ukraine is carrying out a broad offensive along the Bakhmut front.

Along the Dnipro, there were no notable battlefield developments, beyond that Russia is increasingly relying on artillery as their air power fails to get the job done. However, there were two notable events; the first is that Russia has reportedly ordered the evacuation of much of the east bank of the Dnipro river. This is (probably) not related to any hazards from the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, as it includes areas well to the north and the south of Nova Kakhovka. Instead, it is probably in preparation for an expected major Ukrainian crossing attempt. The other development is that Russia passed a letter around the United Nations today asserting that they would not destroy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukraine carried out drills to improve their response if the plant were to be destroyed; Ukraine continues to maintain that it is prepped to blow at Putin's command.

Elsewhere along the front, the only place that saw any notable changes was Robotyne, where Ukraine is widening their salient towards the town. As of right now, Ukraine has carved a narrow path to the town through minefields, which means that Russian artillery can focus on a small area to disable full columns of Ukrainian vehicles (this is where most of the now notorious images of piles of Ukrainian armor emerged from at the start of Ukraine's offensive). By widening the path to Robotyne, Ukraine can prevent such an incident from reoccurring. It's a time consuming process, but shows that Ukraine has rapidly learned from their earlier error.

Other spots along the front have remained the same or seen positional battles with nothing really changing. Russia is still applying pressure towards the Zherebets river and Kupyansk, and Ukraine is doing the same south of Velyka Novosilka, but both sides are currently battling over a handful of fields along both fronts. It's certainly possible that a concerted Russian effort to reach the Zherebets river or Kupyansk could succeed, and Ukraine is clearly trying to reach the Russian stronghold of Staromlynivka to the south of Velyka Novosilka, but at the current rate of advance by both sides, it could be weeks before the situation has changed much at all.

PMC Wagner drama is still unfolding, and if anything, is accelerating yet again with international repercussions. After threatening to crack down hard on PMC Wagner in Syria, it was reported that PMC Wagner was close to inking a deal with Syria's Assad before Prigozhin's march towards Moscow. The deal would have seen PMC Wagner's presence in Syria grow massively, with their footprint increasing by up to ten times over. Assad's government has been thrown into an awkward situation, as they assumed the deal they were negotiating would help to further improve ties with Russia, but everything has since been thrown into limbo. They are now reportedly trying to see if they can agree to the deal with PMC Wagner without sacrificing military support from Russia itself.

In Libya, the United Nations-backed government reportedly launched a drone strike against a military base controlled by the opposing government and used by PMC Wagner fighters. The two governments have an official ceasefire and despite the occasional flare up of violence (and now another new government rivaling these two), have by and large remained at peace the past couple of years. The drone strike combined with the uncertain future status of PMC Wagner threatens to unravel the fragile peace that Libya has.

It's a similar situation in Mali and the Central African Republic, where PMC Wagner may also be forced to scale down their activities. After the French withdrawal from Mali, PMC Wagner, acting as an agent of Russia, was one of the last major foreign force on the ground fighting alongside the central government. The situation in Mali's multi-faceted civil war is rarely stable, as the possible forced withdrawal of PMC Wagner threatens to send the country into additional turmoil. While I'm not particularly familiar with the situation in the Central African Republic, from what I've heard, it's a very similar dynamic there. Of note, there have been few rumors of a changing PMC Wagner presence in Sudan; Russia has maintained close relations with both major factions in the ongoing war there, both through official channels and through PMC Wagner, and probably doesn't want to be perceived as picking favorites by pulling out PMC Wagner (who are slightly more aligned with the RSF insurgents).

As for the situation in Ukraine, it's far from clear. Both Russia and Ukraine have stated that PMC Wagner's presence in Ukraine is finished for the foreseeable future, while the United States has asserted that the group is still fighting in Ukraine. However, the United States demurred on whether or not PMC Wagner is building bases on Belarus, which Russia, Belarus, and PMC Wagner have said is happening, but which Ukraine has called a ruse.

A series of cyber attacks have also hit Russia, including their satellite communications. Many of these attacks were claimed by individuals claiming to work on behalf of PMC Wagner. Ukrainian intelligence has said that there is now a full fledged "war" between Russia's intelligence agencies and military in the aftermath of Prigozhin's rebellion. There seems to be some truth to this based on the cyber attacks and the Incredibly mixed messaging regarding Surovikin. Reported to be arrested, some are now saying that he is "being kept in one place" for questioning, but that he is not yet officially under arrest or being charged. Other media has cited sources asserting that he is, in fact, under arrest. A Prigozhin-linked social media website (ЯRUS) has also suspended operations, citing the suspension of their financial support.

Relations between Iran and Ukraine, consistently poor, have nosedived. Ukraine has reportedly found Iranian manufactured artillery shells being used against them, while Ukraine joined a coalition of countries suing Iran for the shoot down of a Ukrainian passenger jet in January 2020. Ukraine is seeking to refer the case to the International Court of Justice.

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