Gabriel B
15 supporters
Ukraine - June 25, 2023

Ukraine - June 25, 2023

Jun 26, 2023

Ukraine has made some confirmed gains on the east bank of the Dnipro river, near the eastern side of the broken Antonovskiy bridge. Ukraine's presence here is quite small, but the local Russian troops seem to be unable to expel them. Public calls have gone out on Telegram asking for sure support, which has yet to arrive. Ukraine has successfully taken advantage of Russia's fortifications here literally being washed away, a problem which Russia made worse for themselves by pulling units away from the area to send towards the Zaporizhzhia front. Ukraine has previously crossed the river at this point before, contesting the strip of houses on either side of the Antonovskiy bridge at times. Ukraine has also pushed deeper before, almost reaching Oleshky. However, Russian Telegram channels seem to be much more alarmed about this current crossing attempt than normal, and Ukraine has sustained a presence here for three days. It's worth noting that, technically, Ukraine's beachhead is on an island, though they crossed the largest portion of the Dnipro river.

Ukraine claims to have made additional gains in the broader Bakhmut area, including the expulsion of all Russian troops from the west side of the canal. However, I believe that this actually happened quite a while ago and that excluding the occasional raid or scouting party, this was a much delayed announcement. Ukraine has reportedly made additional headway towards Klishchiivka, particularly to the northwest of the town. This is the site of Russia's strongest fortifications in the area; if Ukraine can advance just a bit further, they will be pushing up against these fortifications. If Ukraine can secure the area, they will be able to exert fire control over Klishchiivka and should be able to take a sizable chunk of territory in the Bakhmut area.

Little else has changed along the front, though Ukraine is trying hard to squeeze Russia out of the settlements to the southwest of Velyka Novosilka. They have advanced slightly towards Pryyutne and Rivnopil, which still remains under Russian control despite there being no firm supply lines to the village. Ukraine's offensive here is still very, very slow but they still are slowly advancing, a sharp contrast from Russia's failed efforts to continue advancing between Kreminna and Kupyansk.

Ukraine has stated that Russia ahs completed their preparations to detonate the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant; all that remains is the order to be given, according to Ukrainian intelligence. The future will be fraught until the IAEA can send a new mission to the power plant to determine whether or not Russia is indeed ready to detonate the plant, Europe's largest nuclear power plant.

A quite possibly staged video has emerged, showing Russian troops executing PMC Wagner troops. Some analysts have brought up a few points of concern with the video, doubting its authenticity, which certainly would match PMC Wagner's recent modus operandi. However it will probably inflame tensions between PMC Wagner and the Kremlin further, as PMC Wagner fighters were given amnesty. Regardless of whether or not the video is authentic, it has spread like wildfire.

There has also been some reporting that the reason why Prigozhin backed down from his coup attempt was because the Kremlin got ahold of and was threatening the families of senior PMC Wagner members. If so, it demonstrates how truly desperate Russia was to stop PMC Wagner's march on Moscow, and their absolute inability to prevent the march through conventional military means. If Ukraine were to achieve a breakthrough and rush towards Moscow, Russia would not be able to exert such influence over Ukraine's command.

Any ramifications from Prigozhin's deal with Putin as they relate to Russia's Ministry of Defense are not yet clear. Western media have reported that Shoigu will likely be fired as part of the deal with Prigozhin, but the Russian government has denied that Shoigu (or Gerasimov) will be fired. I take this to mean that either or both will eventually be quitely replaced in several weeks or months. However, many in the west seem to be under the impression that Shoigu will be ousted this week.

Enjoy this post?

Buy Gabriel B a coffee

More from Gabriel B