Gabriel B
15 supporters
Ukraine - June 16, 20242

Ukraine - June 16, 20242

Jun 17, 2024

The Kremlin claimed to have captured the village of Zahirne, in Zaporizhzhia oblast. No evidence was provided, but Russian milbloggers claimed the same. However, this was actually a village which I had previously believed to be under Russian control, as Ukrainian control over Zahirne would have meant an awkward bulge in the front for Russia at Myrne, and this was something that neither side exploited. Consequently, I am assuming that the village was simply left empty for some time, and that Russian forces are only now moving into it.

A major security incident took place in Russia's Rostov, where several prisoners mutinied and took their guards captive. The prisoners were reportedly members of ISIS, one of the latest of a string of high profile incidents involving the organization. As Russia reasserted order in the prison, there have been some sporadic reports that Ukrainian prisoners of war may have been impacted in some way. But the situation is not one that had its aftermath reported on much at all, and Russia is keeping the details quite closed to the public.

A large number of the countries which attended the Switzerland conference signed up to a joint statement. However, a number of states did not, including countries such as Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Mostly the countries which declined to sign on were countries who have close relations with both the west and Russia. Collectively, the signatories demanded safety for nuclear energy, and explicitly named the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Furthermore, the statement declared that it must be operated under the sovereign control of Ukraine. A subclause stated that nuclear threats or the use of nuclear weapons was unacceptable. The next paragraph stated that food security must not be jeopardized or weaponized. The statement also requested a complete and total swap of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine, in addition to demanding the return of prisoners of war, the statement also called on all detained Ukrainian civilians and kidnapped children to be returned to Ukraine.

There has been some sporadic reporting that the next summit may be in approximately five months, some time around the end of the year. Separately, American media and others have speculated for a while that the upcoming winter may be ideal for negotiations, as the winter will make launching offensives more challenging. Switzerland has also floated the idea of temporarily suspending their obligations to the ICC to arrest Putin on sight, so that he could personally attend a second summit. However, I doubt this is the make or break factor in Russia's calculus, as they declined to send any delegation at all for this summit when most of the Russian government would have been eligible to attend without facing the risk of arrest.

Enjoy this post?

Buy Gabriel B a coffee

More from Gabriel B