Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 14, 2024

Ukraine - June 14, 2024

Jun 15, 2024

Russia is pushing extremely hard in Donetsk oblast, towards the vital logistic hub of Pokrovsk. Ukraine claims to have dismantled a significant Russian assault, purporting to have destroyed well over a dozen vehicles and to have inflicted a couple hundred casualties. I am deeply sceptical of these figures, with released footage showing heavy damage done to armored vehicles, but not in the numbers Ukraine was talking about. I am particularly dubious of the claimed number of casualties, as the released footage did not show anywhere near the alleged number of killed and severely wounded Russian troops.

Putin today spelled out terms for a ceasefire leading to negotiations with Ukraine. Firstly, Putin is demanding that Ukraine abandon the entirety of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts. Secondly, they must formally recognize Crimea as part of Russia. In addition, they are to agree to permanently refuse to join NATO. And finally, the west is to drop all sanctions on Russia. Only at this point in time, would Russia agree to a ceasefire and peace talks with Ukraine per Putin. Ukraine almost immediately rejected Putin's offer; accepting would simply leave Ukraine in a position to be crippled military in short order once exposure to the global market would allow Russia to rapidly rebuild its armed forces, and with Ukraine abandoning most of their defensive positions while also granting Russia two substantial bridgeheads west of the Dnipro river.

Suffice to say, this is not a serious offer made by Putin. It's one that Ukraine would never accept, something which I am sure he is quite aware of. This means he is doing it for optics; with Ukraine about to have a major peace summit in Switzerland and with sanctions being ramped up further on Russia, Putin is trying to portray himself as reasonable, and Ukraine as the country that doesn't want to negotiate for peace. Putin also threatened Ukraine with further aggressive actions if they did not agree to his terms, and stated the next offer would be one in which Ukraine was expected to surrender. Seeing as the ultimatum would already be a Ukrainian capitulation in all but name only, whatever the next "offer" is will almost assuredly be even more lopsided. Notably, countries such as Argentina have been drifting away from Russia and are openly backing Ukraine now. Armenia, still a formal treaty ally of Russia at the moment, is also sending a delegation to the Switzerland conference.

Speaking of, Zelenskyy has arrived in Switzerland for the conference. Ultimately, 92 countries have sent delegations, most of the hundred or so number which had been anticipated to attend before the Russian and Chinese pressure campaign to get countries to withdraw. Notably, Saudi Arabia decided to attend, a surprise reversal from earlier. Brazil, which is pushing a rival conference with Chinese and Russian participation, also sent a delegation to Switzerland but merely as an observer.

Despite these positive developments for Ukraine, there have been some significant diplomatic stumbling blocks. NATO allies failed to unanimously agree to fund Ukraine for the future, while Hungary continues to express reservations about formally starting EU accession this month. Furthermore, Germany is reportedly holding up sanctions on Russian gas. That said, Germany has partially made up for this by promising more military assistance to Ukraine, including two IRIS-T air defense systems, three HIMARS, and an additional ten Leopard tanks, as well as some other armored vehicles and munitions.

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