Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 14, 2023

Ukraine - June 14, 2023

Jun 15, 2023

A Telegram channel linked to Russia's 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade today put out an interesting statement. After running it past a Russian linguist contact of mine, I was told it can be read two different ways; one of which would be a confession to the apparently accidental destruction of the Kakhovka dam. The alternate interpretation is that the author of the post was speaking hypothetically. My contact said they were opting to go with the latter, but even admitted that they were unsure if that was the correct call. The 205th is the unit that Ukraine has directly blamed for the destruction of the dam, and the unit has a long running history of operating in the general area. Last autumn (via the same channel), the 205th stated that the dam was mined and might be blown in the advance of a large Ukrainian crossing effort, which of course never materialized prior to the destruction of the dam. While I'm not willing to take an ambiguous confession as damning evidence on its own, it is some of the strongest public evidence as to who was responsible for Ukraine's largest environmental disaster since the nuclear disaster at Chornobyl. It aligns with Ukraine's own statements, as well as the purported intercepted call Ukraine published of a Russian soldier claiming that they had only meant to scare Ukraine by damaging, but not destroying, the dam. Increasingly, it seems most likely that Russia destroyed the dam by mistake. Whether the orders came from a panicked officer in the face of Ukraine's counteroffensive or from the Kremlin itself I think is still very up in the air. What seems to be pretty clear is that Russia certainly didn't intend to destroy the dam. The large quantities of stranded military equipment and, to a lesser extent, troops I feel is a pretty strong indication of this.

The Kakhovka reservoir (or more accurately, former reservoir) is down to under a third of its previous levels. The once mighty reservoir is now a very crossable river at points, including between the Ukrainain held city of Nikopol to the occupied city of Enerhodar, which hosts the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Obstacles to a river crossing here, ironically, includes the relative lack of obstacles. A flat riverbed with no vegetation would provide a crossing force with no opportunities for cover. The soil is also currently still quite damp, though over the next two weeks this region is expected to see pretty dry weather. Even if the newly resurfaced soil dries out, it is still likely quite soft and made largely of sediment. This will impede the ability to get heavy equipment across, as pontoon bridges would sink deep into the soil, as would amphibious vehicles such as BMPs simply trying to drive across. Even so, Ukraine can certainly try to replicate their Dnipro river delta campaign (now rather moot) to former Kakhovka reservoir region, as small reconnaissance teams could possibly sneak by Russian defenses, which are far thinner here than to the east of the Dnipro river. This on turn opens up new possibilities for Ukrainian sabotage against Russian supply lines. It's also possible that Ukraine could pull off an actually crossing attempt and succeed. They have in the past done things that they "shouldn't" have been able to do, in part because they were so bold that they were unexpected, such as the resupply of the besieged defenders of Mariupol by over a half dozen helicopter runs deep through enemy territory.

In terms of the front, there are some claims (almost entirely stemming from a Kyiv Post article) asserting that Ukraine has recaptured Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka. I am willing to believe such claims due to the continued presence of foreign media in villages immediately to the north, but there is also no publicly available evidence to suggest that Urozhaine has been fully recaptured. Some Russian milbloggers have said that the front runs through the northeast corner of Urozhaine, which also seems quite plausible to me. Staromaiorske seems to be more firmly under Russian control, with no credible claims yet of Ukraine advancing into the village. Outside of these particular villages, footage has emerged of Russian troops suffering from a large number of their military hardware being destroyed. Close to half of a Russian artillery battery was destroyed, for instance. It's not clear if this footage is delayed by several days (as Ukraine has a tendency to do) or if they are from today, but it should help to rebalance the media landscape, as Ukraine was being criticized for their own heavy armored losses.

The flanks of Ukraine's push down the Mokri Yaly river valley are still meeting with staunch resistance, as a number of settlements continue to be contested. To the west, Russia has kept open a supply line to Rivnopil, aided by the relatively dry weather. To the east, Ukraine is attempting to establish a firm presence to the south and west of Pavlivka to flank the key town of Pavlivka, but Russia is seemingly quite aware that this is ground that they cannot afford to lose.

The Tokmak region in Zaporizhzhia still seems to be fairly quiet, with no reported advances or breaching attempts from Ukraine. The Bakhmut region is still seeing intense, grinding fighting with neither side holding a major advantage. But there was major news from Kreminna today, and it's an astonishingly horrific display of some of the ineptitude by Russia's commanding officers. Hundreds of Russian troops were gathered in the Kreminna area, awaiting for a speech from Major General Sukhrab Akhmedov. Ukrainian artillery first; Russian milbloggers have conceded that there were over a hundred deaths, and a comparable amount of wounded. Akhmedov is perhaps most notorious for his role in Russia's disastrous efforts to capture Pavlivka and Vuhledar, which led to the deaths of hundreds of Russian troops and see the destruction of dozens of Russian armored vehicles, in exchange for only capturing the bulk of the small town of Pavlivka.

There was an incredibly bizarre incident today, involving a member of the Duma and a close friend of Kadyrov, Adam Delimkhanov. Delimkhanov was reportedly wounded according to the Duma's press office due to a Ukrainian strike near Berdiansk. Kadyrov stated after dozens of calls he couldn't get a hold of Delimkhanov; even after initially insisting he was fine, the Kremlin through Putin's spokesman Peskov said they didn't know his condition. A top lieutenant of Kadyrov's said he was pulling all troops out of Marinka and sending them to go find Delimkhanov, who then suddenly appeared, unwounded; Kadyrov claimed he couldn't be reached due to the need to maintain radio silence due to being within Ukraine's missile range. Kadyrov then boasted of his forces performing well in Marinka and Belgorod oblast. Overall, this was a very bizarre incident, and just serves to show how disjointed the Kremlin is from the PMCs and militias ostensibly taking orders from the Kremlin. It also is a strong case study as to why the Kremlin is trying to reign in these groups and formalize the command structure, with them being subservient to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

In international news, Erdogan has said that Sweden has not made enough progress to join NATO by their July summit, tanking Sweden's aspirations for the time being. Taking a different tack and trying to isolate Erdogan, the United States is now withholding weapons sales to Hungary until the Hungarian government drops their veto, which would leave Erdogan standing alone.

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