Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 10, 2023

Ukraine - June 10, 2023

Jun 11, 2023

The Kakhovka reservoir has drained drastically, leading to the city of Nikopol and smaller settlements having their water cut off. With hundreds of thousands sof civilians living along the Kakhovka reservoir, a major humanitarian catastrophe looks as the civilians living here will either need to be evacuated to where there is water, or have water brought to them imminently. Sediment, garbage, and other miscellaneous detritus has flooded down the Dnipro, doing large ecological damage to the Dniprovska Gulf, as well as the Black Sea. It's still far too early to know the true extent of the ecological harm that will have been done, but the known ramifications are already immense. Overall water levels are starting to subside, but it will still be quite a while before they are at stable levels.

Russia's first line of defense south of Velyka Novosilka has collapsed. Ukraine has advanced along both sides of the Mokri Yaly river, capturing the villages of Neskuchne and Blahodatne. Ukraine has also advanced west of Storozheve, and has hammered Russia's garrison in the village. Ukraine will probably capture Storozheve in short order. On the eastern side of the river, Ukraine is rapidly advancing on the settlement of Urozhaine. Slightly to the east, Ukraine has resumed contesting Novodonetske, with some early reports coming out that Ukraine has recaptured the settlement yet again. While this front is entirely in Donetsk oblast, it is very clearly a supporting effort for Ukraine's major push towards Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Ukraine's immediate goal is likely the town of Staromlynivka, which could serve as a convenient base of operations against Russia's primary first line of major fortifications in Donetsk oblast. It's worth noting that while Russia's defenses here are rapidly folding, it was not part of the massive lines of fortifications which Russia has built over the past many months. Even so, this was a front which has remained largely stagnant for a very long time.

In Zaporizhzhia oblast, Ukraine has finished capturing the village of Lobkove, and has pushed south to contest Luhove and Zherebyanky, while Pyatykhatky is likely contested as well. North of Tokmak, Ukrainian troops are pushing hard to try to bypass the village of Robotyne. The area is very much so a gray zone, as it's unclear how far Ukrainian troops have managed to advance. This is a pivotal region, as if Ukraine can break through at Robotyne, as it is the first step on the way to Tokmak. As part of Russia's first major line of fortifications, a Ukrainian victory at Robotyne would enable a Ukrainian advance to the town of Novoprokopivka, which sits right in front of Russias next major line of defense.

News from Bakhmut continues to be largely contradictory as Ukraine is openly declaring that they are advancing, while Russian milbloggers claim that Russian troops have advanced slightly near Berkhivka. There are rumors from the Ukrainian side that they have reached the edges of the suburb of Yahidne, an inner ring suburb of Bakhmut. To the south of Bakhmut, another major campaign is brewing as Ukraine has successfully either crossed the canal or skirted around the southern edge and back up along the east bank, directly to the north of the Mayorsk train station which is a major Russian strongpoint. Ukraine now has a direct line of sight to the railroad, which has been under Russian control and is one of the supply lines to Bakhmut. Right behind the railroad is a major highway, whichbis similarly an important artery for supplying Russian troops in the Bakhmut area. If Ukraine can create a breakthrough in the area, they can cut several supply lines to Bakhmut while pushing up against Horlivka. Horlivka is one of the largest Ukrainian cities under Russian occupation.

There have been some very vague rumors of Ukraine building up for a second offensive in the Kharkiv region. There has also been a slight uptick in combat footage from the area. It's worth recalling that Ukraine, after launching a grinding, costly offensive in Kherson blitzed Kharkiv oblast before. Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia/southern Donetsk oblast offensive has a lot of similarities to Ukraine's initial Kherson offensive (though the circumstances are quite different). I wouldn't be surprised if the ongoing attack is one of two major thrusts, with Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts being a likely candidate for a second major thrust, at least while the water and sediment levels, as well as the presence of mines remains deeply uncertain along the Dnipro.

Russia has reportedly transferred some Ukrainian POWs of Hungarian descent to Hungary, a country which has fairly close ties with Russia and complicated relations with Ukraine. Ukraine has said that they do not know where these POWs are currently being held, implying that Hungary is possibly edfectively holding Ukrainian soldiers hostage for an unknown reason. If the prisoners are not restored to Ukraine soon, Hungary will be placed in an extremely awkward situation as they attempt to balance relations between their fellow EU/NATO member states and Russia.

Reportedly twenty members of NATO, a majority, have expressed support for Ukraine joining NATO as soon as "conditions allow for it" (presumably, meaning after the conclusion of the war). With a large number of holdouts, plus with Russia's military not undergoing a mass collapse, it's highly improbable that Ukraine will be offered NATO membership during the July summit.

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