Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 07, 2024

Ukraine - June 07, 2024

Jun 08, 2024

Ukraine has gone on the offensive north of Kharkiv, pushing into the village of Hlyboke. Situated northeast of Lyptsi, recapturing the village would drive a bit of a wedge into the front. Flanked by a river to the west, it also has some natural defenses going for it if Ukraine is successful. But arguably more important, Ukrainian forces having battles their way into Hlyboke strongly suggests that Ukraine has taken over some of the high ground between Lyptsi and Hlyboke. Part of a plateau through the area, it means that Russia no longer is the only one with high elevation vantage points. It also disrupts one of the possible ways from which Russia might have attempted to capture Lyptsi.

The United States has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, coinciding with a visit involving Zelenskyy and Biden in Paris. The package wasn't particularly large, but one part of it stands out; approximately two hundred M113 APCs (the number wasn't specified). While they're not exactly new, Ukraine is in desperate need of more armored vehicles, and these fit the bill. It's also worth noting that they are amphibious, meaning an assault across the Dnipro river (or others) could be carried out with these vehicles. Particularly with Russia's Kharkiv offensive making various rivers more relevant to the front, as well as Russia's offensive along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal around Chasiv Yar, the ability to safely traverse aquatic obstacles rapidly is absolutely vital for Ukraine.

The EU Commission has signed off on starting accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Georgia was notably left out. Hungary voiced its protest at the support for Ukraine, and talks are expected to be held on June 12th to try to resolve the Hungarian complaints. There is a major push to officially have talks between signed off on by almost branches of the EU administration before the end of the month, when the EU Council presidency is transferred from Belgium to Hungary. The EU Council still needs to grant its assent for talks to begin, a process which Hungary is likely to hold up, presidency or no. But once the presidency is in Hungarian hands, Hungary will be able to throw up roadblocks much more easily. All of this is happening with EU elections taking place. The wrbsites of several Dutch political parties were hacked, by a Russian hacking group. Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of Denmark, was also physically attacked in a concerning act of political violence (especially with Slovakia's Fico having recently survived an assassination attempt). Motive for the attack on Frederiksen has not yet been declared, while the would be assassin of Fico has rather syncretic beliefs, but claimed to be opposed to Fico's relatively pro-Russian positions.

A new poll in Ukraine has been published, and it's showing some warning signs for Zelenskyy. Specifically, on the subject of trust. Initially earning sky high marks, public trust in him had cratered to just 37% before Russia's full scale invasion, before skyrocketing to an impressive 90% after the invasion. Since then, it has decreased, and is now sitting at 59%, with 36% of the Ukrainian public not trusting him. To be clear, these are still figures that political figures around the globe would be envious of, but it is certainly a trend for Zelenskyy to keep in mind. More concerning though is the perception that democracy has backslid under Zelenskyy. Objectively, this is true, due to the state of martial law imposed in response to the war, which has also meant a suspension of elections. However, the martial law has been backed by all branches of government, and has been supported by the Ukraine's allies. As for elections, the same situation has played out, with Ukraine's independent election commission also agreeing that elections should be suspended in line with the Ukrainian constitution.

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