Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 03, 2023

Ukraine - June 03, 2023

Jun 04, 2023

Zelenskyy has in a wide ranging interview with the WSJ declared that Ukraine is ready to launch their counteroffensive. He expressed gratitude for international support for Ukraine but also balanced it with complaints that some key support hasn't arrived yet or has yet to be promised. While asserting that Ukraine was ready, Zelenskyy didn't say that the offensive was necessarily imminent. He expressed some reservations, acknowledging that the death toll for Ukrainian forces could be quite high if they don't receive further means of reducing Russia's aerial power.

However, Ukraine's military published new daily figures today that showed a massive spike in the purported destruction of Russian artillery pieces in particular, but also other military hardware in general. Removing Russian artillery is necessary for Ukraine to kick off a successful offensive, but so is crippling Russian logistics, which Ukraine has also increased their reported strikes on. A much larger number of Russian fuel trucks were destroyed today according to Ukraine's military. This is combined with continued heavy strikes against the rail network around Melitopol and deep strikes against the port city of Berdiansk.

Russia is continuing to make limited gains in Marinka, as Kadyrov's troops have provided additional bodies for Russia to throw at entrenched Ukrainian positions. Russia is now in control of around three quarters of the destroyed suburb. Once Russia captures the remains of the suburb, they will have a new avenue of attack available against Vuhledar, and will be able to help reinforce their efforts to conquer Pervomaiske.

PMC Wagner has just about fully withdrawn from Bakhmut by now, and they are being replaced by elite Russian forces, in particular the VDV. It shows that Russia is still trying to put some of their best troops in Bakhmut out of concerns of a possible Ukrainian counterattack in the area, despite combat in the area overall dying down since the fall of Bakhmut. With the VDV and other elite Russian formations in and around the city, Ukraine will have a difficult time capturing Russian positions near Klischiivka and other Russian-occupied Bakhmut suburbs.

The most intense combat today was actually likely in Belgorod oblast. While Russia and Ukraine continue to trade deep strikes (Russia attacked Kyiv and Dnipro today), Ukraine targeted Shebekino, Belgorod oblast, with close to a thousand shells and missiles over the past day per Belgorod's governor. Shelling of other towns in Belgorod, such as those near Grayvoron, caused additional blackouts in part of the oblast. There have been sporadic rumors that Shebekino has been abandoned by Russia, with footage even showing Russia using incendiary munitions just south of Shebekino. Evacuations from Shebekino, the capital of Shebekinsky raion, have begun with civilians temporarily holing up a local stadium. The town has allegedly fallen to looters and rioters, though there's not a lot of evidence showing that the looting is systemic. RDK and Legion forces have pledged to open humanitarian corridors into Ukraine for fleeing Russian civilians, though it seems few, if any, have taken them up on their offer. RDK and Legion troops certainly seems to have a sustained military presence around Shebekino, though it doesn't seem as if they outright control any territory in Belgorod oblast at the moment. Per statements they both made earlier today, most of Shebekinsky raion, including Shebekino itself, is a "gray area" with neither side able to exert firm military control. There have been some claims that the Russian military has fully pulled out of Shebekino, but this is not possible to verify at this point in time. At least one prominent Russian milblogger is in the area, but they have been geolocated to the northern part of the city center, meaning that it is certainly possible that Russian troops have left at least a part of Shebekino.

In his interview published earlier today, Zelenskyy also said that there would be "no point" to attending the NATO summit in July if Ukraine was not given a clear indication that their NATO application is moving along. Unlike the EU, there are far fewer bureaucratic steps to joining NATO, so presuming the war continues for another couple of years, Ukraine's application can only advance so much before it will be stalled. As a result, Ukraine will likely be offered closer forms of cooperation with western allies instead of seeing their NATO application progress.

Erdogan's inauguration was today, and there was a large foreign presence trying to get on his good side. One of the most notable pairings was the presence of the heads of both Armenia and Azerbaijan; Turkey may be trying to throw their hat into the ring of powers trying to hammer out a peace deal between the two. Also present were a large number of European delegations, who are taking the opportunity to try to entice Erdogan to finally sign off on allowing Sweden to join NATO.

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