Gabriel B
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Ukraine - July 26, 2024

Ukraine - July 26, 2024

Jul 27, 2024

Russia is continuing to pour troops through the gap between the Vovcha and Kazenyi Torets rivers, with Russian forces already starting to arc behind the town of Tymofiivka. They have also pushed into the edge of Vesele. The rate of Russia's advances over the past week or so is one of the highest for Russia for the summer; the last time they advanced this rapidly, it was during the fall of Avdiivka. Ukraine was clearly caught flat-footed here, an unfortunate situation which could have dire consequences for much of the front depending on whether or not Russia can effectively sever the supply lines running through Pokrovsk.

Ukraine launched an ATACMS strike against Sakh airbase in Crimea, torching an air defense system and some radars. This comes ahead of the delivery of F-16s. Despite the first batch reportedly being en route to Ukraine some time ago, they have yet to make an appearance in Ukraine. At this point, the planes have been delayed by almost a year.

According to the New York Times, Russian Defense Minister Belousov called his American counterpart earlier this month in an extremely rare call. What reportedly prompted the call was a plot by Ukraine that had spooked Russia; the details of this alleged plot have not been reported on. The call also came days after the United States raised the alertness levels of its military bases in Europe, and when Russia was reviving claims that Ukraine was developing plans for a dirty bomb (Russian media regularly cycles through this particular claim, among other unfounded claims of Ukraine plotting to use other CBRN weaponry). According to the report, Russia was verifying that the United States was not aware of the alleged plot, and sought to get the United States to pressure Ukraine to call off the plot. While the United States does back Ukraine, the two certainly don't always see eye to eye, with the United States being extremely averse to perceived escalation. If Ukraine was plotting something particulay bold, it's possible, if not probable that the United States would have aligned more with Russia than Ukraine.

Romania today issued a statement insisting that they did not fire upon any Russian drones that are reported to have flown over their territory during Russia's most recent bombardment of the Ukrainain river port of Izmail. They declared that videos showing Romanian air defense firing up on Russian drones were "fakes" because they implied that Russia was targeting Romania. Romania further claimed that the wreckage that fell on their territory was the result of Ukrainian artillery taking down Russian drones, which is rather improbable; air defenses, electronic warfare, propeller planes, and small arms fire are the most reliable methods Ukraine has for taking down drones.

Further aid from the United States will be incoming to Ukraine soon. Approximately $8 billion in financial aid is expected to reach Ukraine before November. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has discovered yet another massive accounting error due to them overvaluing the cost of the aid delivered to Ukraine. This mistake totalled around $2 billion; this is not the first time the Pentagon has made an accounting error like this of this magnitude. It is something of a recurring issue, which has slowed the overall amount of aid going to Ukraine as the newly freed up funds could have been used earlier had the hardware been correctly valued the first time around.

India's Modi is reportedly visiting Kyiv in mid to late August. As the head of the most populous country (per the most recent UN projection), Modi carries a lot of weight geopolitically. India is also a fairly neutral country in the dispute; India has historical ties to Russia, especially in matters of security. But given its recent history and contemporary issues with China prodding their borders, India also doesn't take kindly to expansionist states. Any arrangement or statements made by Modi as a result of his visit could have significant political ramifications.

Today was the opening ceremony of the Olympics in France. The event itself was fine, but early in the morning a series of sabotage attacks crippled France's high speed rail network. France also arrested a network of people including a Russian citizen for alleged plots to disrupt the Olympics. The network was not publicly tied to the sabotage of the rail network; no suspect has yet been named. But speculation has been rampant that Russia was responsible.

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