Gabriel B
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Ukraine - July 21, 2024

Ukraine - July 21, 2024

Jul 22, 2024

Russia scored an important victory today, crossing the Vovcha river and the Kazenyi Torets river (the two almost meet with only a very minor gap) in Donetsk oblast.  The Vovcha and to a lesser extent the Kazenyi Torets have been assumed by many analysts to be Ukraine's next fallback line; I myself was of this opinion as well.  But Ukraine's manpower issues are continuing to show as they simply cannot keep all the holes in their lines plugged.  What should have been a natural defensive barrier was permeated almost immediately.  Russia has seized the village of Prohres, located west of the Vovcha.  They also captured Lozuvatske, which sits at the end of the Kazenyi Torets.  The capture of these villages provides Russia with flank protection should they seek to exploit the gap between the two rivers, instead of trying to send their heavy equipment directly across the rivers.  It also means that Russia has managed to push about half of the way from Avdiivka to the vital logistics hub at Pokrovsk.  A battle for the city taking place by the end of the summer is certainly not out of the question, and it would put Ukrainians positions in key front cities such as Vuhledar and Toretsk under immense strain if they haven't already fallen.


Zelenskyy today announced the delivery of a previously pledged Patriot battery by Germany.  Despite the delivery, Germany still has a sizable number of batteries left that they could hypothetically deliver, though of course their number is far smaller than American stockpiles.  Germany is also set to drastically cut back military aid to Ukraine next year, while American politics are tumultuous at the moment.  Meanwhile, a plan to scale up production of Patriot missiles in Japan fell through, due to a shortage of a critical component.  This is not expected to be rectified any time soon, though the United States does have other plans on place to try to ramp up production for both the batteries and the missiles.


Today say a titanic political earthquake hit the United States, as Biden announced he will no longer be seeking reelection despite being the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party and the incumbent.  As an elder statesman, Biden has spent decades crafting relationships with politicians both at home and abroad; experience which by definition cannot be directly transferred to another candidate.  Vice President Harris is now the new presumptive nominee; crucially, she will have some of the same connections that Biden has had from the past few years.  Biden being freed from direct electoral concerns may free his hands slightly to further assist Ukraine; but at the same time, Ukraine will be losing a firm ally with irreplaceable experience no matter what come January.  On the flip side, Harris has been polling better than Biden, and the Democrats are broadly more in favor of assistance to Ukraine than the Republicans are, so the passing of the torch may help Ukraine depending on the performance of down ballot Democrats.


Zelenskyy thanked Biden for his support to Ukraine, and acknowledged the tough decision that was made.  Mirroring Biden's own decision, Zelenskyy expressed hypothetical support for elections in Ukraine in the future, stating that the current political situation is not tenable if the war drags on for another decade or so.  This would require significant legislation, as all branches did the government and the independent electoral commission have ruled that elections cannot be held in Ukraine under martial law due to Ukraine's constitution.  It would also mean holding elections without the input of Ukrainians living in regions that Russia has occupied, or of the Ukrainian citizens who were kidnapped and taken into Russia itself. 

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