Today and tomorrow will be shorter posts as I am on vacation.
Ukraine has reportedly launched yet another major push between Robotyne and Verbove in an effort to push through and beyond the main defenses around Robotyne, and to enable a flanking attack against the town. There's no proof that this attack wss more successful than prior ones, though a claim is circulating that Ukraine managed to capture a small sliver of territory. The rest of the Zaporizhzhia front remauns deadlocked, though Russian milblogger Rybar is claiming that this is by design, and that Ukraine is building up for an operation to cross the former Kakhovka reservoir south of Nikopol.
Some have reported on an alleged major Ukrainian advance in the Klishchiivka area. If the reports sre accurate, Ukraine has pushed close to the main road linking Andriivka and Klishchiivka. If true, Klishchiivka would be one step closer to being encircled, and it would place Ukrainian troops slightly to the east Kurdyumivka.
Along thr Kupyansk front, Russia's offensithas progressed slightly closer towards Synkivka, but has yet to score any major breakthroughs. With Ukraine having suffered minor territorial losses, they bought themselves an additional day to shore up their defensive lines in the area. While Russia is still the one setting the tempo in the area, they cannot afford too many more delays. The exception to this would be if the other tens of thousands of troops allegedly deployed to the area per Ukraine decided to materialize.
Prominent milblogger Igor Girkin (also known as Igor Strelkov) has been arrested by Russian authorities on charges of extremism. His history in Ukraine is quite a colorful one, where we played a key role in the 2014 takeover of the Crimean peninsula, as well as the Donbas war. In particular, he was instrumental in the 2014 battles for the city of Sloviansk, and later served as the defense minister of the DPR. He has also been charged with the shootdown of the civilian flight MH17. So while he has acted as a blogger of late, he has been far more involved in the past, and is a war criminal. In his role as a blogger, he has been one of the most prominent of the community, and had frequently directed criticism towards PMC Wagner as well as the Kremlin, but typically abstained from explicitly criticizing Putin directly. After Prigozhin's rebellion, Igor's critiques became much more pointed and personal.
Another figure associated with the "Club of Angry Patriots", a hardline group dissatisfied with the direction Russia's war against Ukraine is taking, was briefly detained as well. Pavel Gubarev also has deep ties to the 2014 chaos in Donetsk oblast, where he had declared himself to be the "People's Governor", though since then his relevance has been somewhat sidelined.
Relations have soured recently between Belarus and Poland, as Belarus has begun hosting Prigozhin and PMC Wagner, and insinuated that PMC Wagner could be used to seize thr Suwalki Gap, the strip of territory belonging to Poland and Lithuania separating Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad from Belarus. The actual odds of a conflict here are slim, as the gap is NATO and EU territory, but it is a threat that Poland and Lithuania take seriously. After Poland slightly increased the number of troops along the border with Belarus, Putin made a series of incendiary and many ahistorical claims about Poland's history. This prompted Poland to summon Russia's ambassador.
After much back and forth, South Africa finally issued a warrant for Putin's arrest in line with the International Criminal Court's request, all but guaranteeing that Putin won't make an in person visit to the upcoming BRICS sumnit. It has been reported that Putin will remotely attend by video calling in.
Russia has scaled back their previous embargo against Ukraine after significant international blowback, declaring that they merely meant that meechant vessels would be subjected to searches by Russian ships. However, heavy strikes against Ukrainian ports such as Odesa continue. Vessels hsve regardless remained outside of the northwest corner of the Black Sea, where Ukraine's territorial waters under their control are situated. Ukraine's threatened blockade of Russian controlled ports on the other hand seems to yo have been entirely ignored.