Russia made a series of minor gains today, primarily through Donetsk oblast. None of their advances were particularly noteworthy z but it does show that Ukraine, everywhere, is short on manpower. That said, Russia's assaults are coming at a steep cost. Russian opposition media outlet Meduza determined that payments to wounded Russian soldiers and to the families of slain Russian troops have cost Russia approximately 1.5% of its GDP. When taking into account the Russian budget, the figure is even more stark; around 8% of the Russian budget for 2024 has gone to these payments. A western estimate from earlier this month based on public casualty estimates published by France and the United Kingdom was lower, at 6% of the Russian budget. Regardless, casualties alone are literally expensive for Russia; and this isn't factoring in things such as the need to retool part of the Russian economy for the war effort, the reduction in trade duento sanctions, and the seizure of many Russian assets abroad. Of course the war is hardly cheap for Ukraine, but if the political will remains in the west and other countries aligned with Ukraine, in terms of the budget at least, Ukraine's war effort can be sustained better than Russia's.
Ukraine has claimed that the last Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol vessel, and by extension the full fleet, has left Crimea. This is close to impossible to verify, as Russia does have submarines, and ships are hardly static fortifications. Russia could without warning redeploy their full fleet to Crimea, for instance. But even a momentary relocation of the fleet hypothetically headquarters out of the city of Sevastopol on the peninsula is a substantial acknowledgement of Ukraine's increasing ability to punish Russia's earlier tactical and strategic naval mistakes. With Ukraine continuing to wither away at Russian air defenses (both in Crimea and elsewhere), the ability for Russia to defend their fleet from missiles is slowly being reduced, as well. If they have fully relocated their fleet, it is a rare cautious and forward thinking move by Russia. It also comes ahead of the sill yet to be delivered F-16s, which are, theoretically, en route to Ukraine.
On that note, there has been some reporting that Greece either may or will transfer their 32 F-16s, due to be decommissioned soon,, to Ukraine. If the reported plan goes through, they would first be sent to the United States to be rehabilitated and updated, before being sent to Ukraine. In exchange, Greece would purchase and receive the more advanced F-35 from the United States; a sale which has not yet been confirmed, as Greece is one of multiple countries requesting the ability to purchase the planes. If this deal does go through, it will take quite some time as Greece will need to be selected, the sale will need to be approved, and the F-35s will need to be in Greek possession all before Greece will part with their F-16s; at which point they'll need to be sent to the United States to undergo a repair and improvement process. However, this would mean that Ukraine would have a steady supply of planes in the coming years, even as they request more in the short term to fulfill their military needs. Still, the 32 planes would be a significant boost to Ukraine, as so far Ukraine is only set to receive several dozen F-16s. The reported impetus for (this yet to be confirmed) deal was the missile strike on Odesa that Russia carried out while Greek leadership was meeting with Zelenskyy in the city. The missile struck less than a kilometer away from Zelenskyy and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis.
On the flip side, Ukraine may be set for a rough 2025. Germany's proposed budget for the year would see their military aid to Ukraine cut in half. Germany has my after some prodding, stepped up to become one of the largest military backers of Ukraine. Such a drastic reduction in aid also means that Ukraine likely would not receive Taurus missiles from Germany, something which they have sought to complement their Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG stockpiles. And in the United States, Trump's pixk for his running mate made some flattering comments towards Russia, and endorsed the Kremlin line that military aid for Ukraine is costing lives.