Gabriel B
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Ukraine - July 05, 2023

Ukraine - July 05, 2023

Jul 06, 2023

Ukraine continues to advance towards Klishchiivka, with some Russian sources reporting a withdrawal from the embattled Bakhmut suburb. Other Russian sources denied that they retreated. Based on the lack of footage from the town itself, I think it is probable that Russia retains control of the town for the time being. However, geolocated footage has shown that Ukrainian troops are at the very edge of the towns and have captured virtually all of the high ground around the town. Russia is seemingly throwing up a staunch resistance around the town, or at the very least, are trying hard to prevent a rapid Ukrainian advance. Heavy Russian shelling is slowing Ukraine's advance, but in my opinion it's a matter of when, and not if, Ukraine takes the entire Klishchiivka area now that most of the fortifications and high ground around the town have fallen under Ukrainian control.

To the north of Bakhmut, geolocated footage has shown that Ukraine has advanced closer to driving a full wedge between Berkhivka and Yahidne, breaking past the eastern edge of the Berkhivka reservoir. Ukraine's advances here have been anemic, but they are increasingly close to having the main roads to Berkhivka in their direct sights. Based on a source from elsewhere in Ukraine, Ukraine is reportedly sending additional reinforcements to Bakhmut. While it wouldn't be unsurprising, the particular unit mentioned wasn't one that I was able to find any real information on, so I don't want to rule out that this could be part of an intentional disinformation campaign. It is, yet again, worth stressing that Ukraine is believed to be holding the bulk of their forces allotted to their counteroffensive still in reserve for the time being.

Along the Zaporizhzhia oblast and south Donetsk front, rumors have flown like wildfire among the Ukrainian side that Pryyutne has been liberated. The village itself isn't particularly important, but its possible liberation shows that Ukraine's slow advance is still ongoing. Russian sources have been quiet about the area, which makes me think it more likely than not that Ukraine did recapture Pryyutne. However, I am not willing to say that it is for sure, as there is no footage from the area confirming that it is now under Ukrainian control. Ukraine's push towards Zherebyanky, yet again, seems to have been repulsed as there has been no new developments reported from this segment of the front.

Combat around the Antonovskiy bridge continues; earlier Russian claims of evicting the Ukrainian defenders were once again premature. Despite the missile strike on the bridge, knocking out a segment of it days ago, Russian sources are still complaining that Ukrainian troops are taking cover under the bridge.

Ukraine has continued heavy strikes against Russian logistic sites, while also maintaining their heavy focus against Russian artillery pieces along virtually the entire length of the front. Artillery is still one of the major advantages that Russia holds, but the differential has been shrinking during Ukraine's targeted campaign, forcing them to use older tanks as howitzers. One of Ukraine's.ist notable attacks today was at the Makiivka just east of the city of Donetsk, reportedly eating an oil refinery. This comes just a day after Ukraine struck a large ammunition depot in the same city. Ukraine's attacks in the area so seem to be paying off, as they have bought themselves slightly more space around Avdiivka. A Russian missile strike struck residential buildings in Lviv several hours later, in a possible retaliatory strike.

Russia's own offensive in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts has finally paid off, as they secured much if the gray area between Novoselivske and Kuzemivka and, according to some sources, have pushed directly into Novoselivske. Located near Svatove, Novoselivske is a key spot of high ground, while Kuzemivka is a heavily fortified and much larger town directly adjacent to Novoselivske, but considerably lower in height. Ukraine and Russia have fought bitterly over the two settlements for months, with a rough stalemate forming with Novoselivske under Ukrainian control and the bulk of Kuzemivka being under Russia's control. A Russian victory over Novoselivske would make a drive past the Zherebets river and to the Oskil significantly more viable for Russian forces.

There has been some comforting news from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, as the IAEA reaffirmed that they found nothing concerning at the power plant, though they stressed that they did not have full access. They requested access to all parts of the plant, particularly the locations where Ukraine has accused Russia of planting explosives. New satellite imagery shows that there appear to me a handful of small objects located on the roof of at least one reactor, at least partially affirming Zelenskyy's claims. However, the imagery is not sharp enough to determine what these objects are. Fortunately, they are quite tiny; if they are explosives, they likely wouldn't cause a disaster that many have been worried about.

Russia is increasing clamping down on dissent internally, at least against prominent symbols. After initially trying and failing to scrub the influence of PMC Wagner, Russian investigators raided Prigozhin's mansion and released many unflattering photos of what they found, such as a wide assortment of wigs and a hefty amount of US dollars. The raid against his mansion comes just a couple of days after Elena Milashina, a journalist, was severely beaten in Chechnya.

The United States is reportedly due to announce tomorrow that it will provide Ukraine with cluster munitions. Other countries have, and despite their global unpopularity, neither Russia nor Ukraine have outlawed their use. They are an extremely useful tool for fighting against entrenched foes, which is the exact situation that Ukraine is currently in. However, they are banned in many countries due to their high risk of civilian casualties. It will quite possibly be an unpopular move domestically within the United States, and it would make it even more challenging for the United States to continue to slow walk out outright refuse to provide Ukraine with other requested and less popular weaponry, such as ATACMS and F-16s.

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