Ukraine:
Drama involving Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi continues as multiple media outlets confirmed that a meeting between the two, along with Defense Minister Umerov, took place and where Zelenskyy informed Zaluzhnyi that he was going to be dismissed and, if he wanted, he would be offered an advisory role. From here, the details seem a bit murky; mainly, regarding the why. Why was Zaluzhnyi to be dismissed, and why did Zelenskyy subsequently back down? Leading theories are that Zelenskyy is looking for a scapegoat for military failures, is looking to weaken one of his chief potential domestic opponents, or that he simply doesn't get along with Zaluzhnyi (disagreements between the two are reported to have begun as early as April 2022). As for the why he backed down, the leading theories are domestic pushback and international pushback, as it was reported that Zelenskyy consulted foreign allies. It was also reported that neither Budanov nor Syrskyi, Zelenskyy's top picks, wanted the job. While I'm never expecting to learn the full details, I think some of all of the above contributed. The fact is, Ukraine's offensive failed after a startling lack of strategic ingenuity, particularly compared to their 2022 successes. But I'm not sure that either of Zelenskyy's picks would be beneficial. Budanov is quite effective where he is, and while Syrskyi helped to play a role in the successful Kharkiv blitz, he is also perceived to be close to Zelenskyy, who is believed to have pushed for a more spread out approach to the 2023 offensive, likely a major contributing factor in its failure.
Underscoring Budanov's effectiveness in his current position, the Ukrainian HUR today successfully hacked the Russian Ministry of Defense. It came amid a substantial internet blackout across Russian which effected .ru websites; but only in Russia itself. As a result, Russian citizens could not easily access most of their websites or the Russian versions of popular websites, but people abroad could. The internet blockage lasted for much of the day, and seems to be much more related to the hacking of the Russian Ministry of Defense than of the recent scheduled overnight cell outages in parts of Russia.
It's worth mentioning that Ukraine claimed to have only intercepted fifteen of 35 drones launched at Ukraine overnight; a very low interception rate compared to their usual numbers, which have already been trending downward. Ukrainian officials have recently stated that they will be forced to make difficult choices when it comes to interceptions as western aid remains stalled, and it seems as if Ukraine has fully reached that point. And by and large, the relatively cheap drones Russia is throwing at Ukraine are less worthwhile to intercept than higher payload missiles if Ukraine has to choose between shooting down one and not the other. Unfortunately, this also means Ukraine will have to make decisions about purposefully allowing both or either civilian and military targets to occasionally be hit, as they are almost assuredly short on the interceptor missiles they need to actually shoot down incoming munitions, even where they have adequate numbers of air defense systems.
Reportedly and after around a year of delay, Ukraine is set to receive GLSDBs as early as tomorrow. The United States was developing a new version for Ukraine, but details are scant. They haven't even been confirmed to be compatible with many of the artillery systems Ukraine uses. However, their range is significant, able to theoretically hit all of occupied Ukraine except for most of the Crimean peninsula. As Ukraine is extremely short on conventional artillery shells, this should help to make up some of the difference in the meantime.
A new version of the draft bill has been submitted to the Rada. One of the key additions is that all of Ukraine's forces would be granted fifteen days of leave annually, even during martial law. While it might take getting some used to, this would do much to alleviate morale and exhaustion problems among Ukrainian soldiers, some of whom have not had a reprieve since February 2022.
In a symbolic gesture of how much Ukraine has broken with its past of being ruled by Moscow, the western Lviv oblast declared itself to be the first to complete the *decommunization" process. A process which was slowly happening but accelerated after Russia's full scale invasion, Ukraine has been moving to remove indicators or their Soviet past. This includes things such as taking down statues, modifying them with Ukrainian national symbols, and renaming settlements and streets.
Middle East:
The conflict is threatening to spill over in earnest to the West Bank, as Israeli forces dressed up as medical staff to conduct a clandestine mission in a West Bank hospital to kill several Hamas fighters. For the record, this is in violation of international law. As for battlefield developments in Gaza itself, Israeli forces are increasingly pushing through western Khan Younis. Some western reporting has suggested that Hamas is reasserting itself as a governing body in northern Gaza. I am a bit sceptical of these claims, but it would be mutually beneficial to both Hamas (obviously) and to the Israeli government; the longer the war drags on, the longer the current Israeli administration can safely remain in power.
As for other regional developments, Kata'ib Hezbollah, the Iraqi militia widely believed to be responsible for the attack that killed and wounded dozens of American troops in Jordan, took a major conciliatory step today. In a major announcement, they declared the suspension of hostilities against the United States. At the same time, they stressed that they operated independent of Iran, and that they were more zealous than Iran in tackling the United States, Israel, etc. This came as the United States deployed additional planes with powerful capabilities to the area (the details I was told in confidence, but suffice to say powerful enough to seriously threaten Iranian assets and nothing nuclear).
It seems as if may be agreed upon that Kata'ib Hezbollah is to take the fall with the expected American strikes in the future. Given that they themselves have all but stated that they were responsible for the attack, this isn't unreasonable. At the same time, they are posturing themselves for the aftermath of the strikes, where they will be able to claim some degree of independence from Iran (Iranian influence in Iraq is a touchy subject, much as American influence is) while also boasting that they have done more than the other militias to harm the United States.
Despite this, several attacks took place against American positions in the region over the past few days, though they caused no casualties. Unhelpfully, the Houthis also lobbed a missile at an American warship, which intercepted the missile.