Gabriel B
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Ukraine - January 20, 2024

Ukraine - January 20, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Russian troops successfully advanced on multiple fronts, and American officials are openly stating that Russia could win the war in months without American aid. I think this is a pessimistic take, but there is no doubt that Ukraine needs further assistance to try to hold off Russia's offensive.

Russian troops have continued to exploit their breakthrough in southern Avdiivka, pushing deeper into the southern portions of the city. The center of Avdiivka is still firmly under Ukrainian control, and Ukraine has yet to give any indication as to whether they will pull out of the city or fight until the end. Ukraine may try to hold the city through the winter to slow down Russia's ability to advance while Ukraine waits for aid from the west and the very long promised F-16s to be delivered.

Relatively nearby, Russian troops have also advanced in the Bakhmut sector of the front, driving a wedge between Klishchiivka to the south and Ivanivske to the west. There are other roads connecting the two Bakhmut suburbs, but this will complicate Ukraine's ability to resupply their garrison in Klishchiivka, and to a lesser extent in Andriivka as well. Russia has launched a major push on Ivanivske, but so far Ukraine has managed to keep them out of the town.

Russian troops also seized the tiny village of Krokhmalne, located northwest of Svatove. Sitting on the major highway in the area, it provides Russia with a very minor node to use to break past the highway north of Novoselivske, which has greatly frustrated Russia's efforts to advance in the region in the past. Krokhmalne was already extremely close to the front, so the advance was geographically a minor one. The hamlet is also located in a valley, so its strategic value is not particularly great. This was almost certainly one of the weakest points in Ukraine's lines here, and was likely not part of their main defensive plans due to the local topography.

Put together, these advances show a concerning pattern, but the amount of territory changing hands is still remarkably small, following the pattern of 2023. The large scale advances and retreats witnessed in 2022 don't seem likely to be repeated any time soon based on Russia's current rate of advance, and Ukraine's more recent emphasis on building multiple layers of defenses.

For the second time recently, a very, very rare drone attack has taken place in Leningrad oblast, Russia. Drones struck the oil and gas terminal at the port of Ust-Luga, located between Estonia and Saint Petersburg. Drone attacks were also reported in Oryol, Tula, and Smolensk oblasts. Nine of the three border Ukraine, but all are roughly between Ukraine and Moscow, and are thus much closer than the attack that took place in Leningrad oblast. These attacks seemed to be primarily targeted towards Russia's military infrastructure, rather than their energy network.

More news has surfaced regarding the shooting down of two high value Russian planes the other day. The Il-22m had successfully landed, albeit with on board casualties and substantial damage to its tail, with no other photographs being published. It has been announced that one of the two pilots was killed, while the other was wounded, effectively confirming that the front of the plane was heavily damaged as well. The plane is almost assuredly a total loss, with the entire hull likely needing to be replaced, as well as significant portions of the frame. Russia may choose to rebuild it out of a sense of pride, but it won't make any economical sense to do so. There is still no direct proof of what exactly happened during this incident, though Ukraine has claimed responsibility. Some Russian milbloggers continue to insist that Russian air defenses were responsible, and it was a friendly fire incident.

Slovakia is once again waffling on support for Ukraine, walking back their walk back of their policy of not providing Ukraine with aid. Slovakia's Fico also came out and explicitly stated that he would veto Ukraine's entry into NATO, stating that it would trigger the next world war. He left the door open for EU membership however, provided that Ukraine meets the necessary criteria and passes the mandated reforms for membership. Even so, he parroted Kremlin lines, such as claiming that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation and is a puppet of the United States. Slovakia also ended their ban on cultural cooperation with Belarus and Russia, bucking a trend of EU and NATO countries which have isolated Belarus and Russia in many facets of cooperation. Fico is scheduled to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart next week, which may once again lead to a Slovakian flip on their stances.

Yemen:

After the fifth known round of American strikes against the Houthis took place, the Pentagon fielded a question of if the United States and the Houthis are at war. The Pentagon's public view is that it is not a war, citing the fact that they have only bombed Houthi positions five times. However, the United States has made it clear that they are drawing up plans for a sustained conflict between the two. The Pentagon isn't putting an end date on any such operation, but has stressed that they don't foresee it being an extended conflict such as the American war in Afghanistan that ended after twenty years. The United Kingdom is reportedly partaking in such talks as well, while also stressing that they are trying to avert a wider war.

Iranian sources have been quoted as saying that they have a command center in Sanaa, which aligns with western claims. Even further, it says that Iran's IRGC has been picking which ships to target out of their command center. The awkward thing about this claim is that a few days ago, the Houthis struck a tanker carrying Russian oil. While Russia was pretty quiet about the matter, such an event couldn't have been good for relations between Iran and Russia.

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