Gabriel B
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Ukraine - January 15, 2024

Ukraine - January 15, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

As another day has passed, some of the details regarding the attack on Russian aerial assets over the Sea of Azov have been clarified. Namely, the A-50 was indeed lost, and the Il-22m did successfully land. However, the entire tail section of the plane is absolutely shredded, as it appears that a missile detonated quite close to it. Some of its sensitive equipment appears to have been knocked off of the plane as well. It will require extensive repairs if it is to be safely flown again. Ukraine has proclaimed that the plane was effectively destroyed, assessing that it will require more funds and effort to repair than it is worth. While this is quite possible, Russia may plow ahead with repairs anyway; they have been known to do this with the crippled leftover hulls of some of their ships.

A major rule of law concern has been raised in Ukraine after journalist Yurii Nikolov stated that his home had been raided by people who declined to identify themselves. Nikolov is known for his investigations into Ukraine's defense ministry under former Defense Minister Reznikov. With the identity of those who visited and threatened Nikolov unknown, it's not possible to know if they are connected directly to the current civil administration of Ukraine, to the military itself, or are simply Reznikov loyalists.

As expected based on yesterday's reporting, Zelenskyy did indeed attend an international conference in Switzerland. While there, he won some major pledges of support, including from the quite famously neutral Switzerland. The country pledged close to $2 billion USD in financial and humanitarian aid, to be distributed over the span of several years, starting in 2025. As reported yesterday, at least one other country is stepping forward to mirror the recent British aid package for Ukraine; in this case, Canada. Canada is referring to the upcoming package as "security assurances" for Ukraine. The Canadian ambassador to Ukraine stressed that the package is still being drafted, and is expected to take weeks to finalize. As of now, the particulars of what might be included are not yet known.

Despite Zelenskyy's public victories on Switzerland, a number of EU countries are putting forth a new challenge. The usual suspects (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria) have demanded that the EU impose customs duties on Ukrainian food exports. This is a setback for Ukraine in multiple ways. There is both the obvious, as well as the implied backsliding of relations with Bulgaria and Romania, both of which had previously largely moved behind trade disputes with Ukraine. Romania has had blockades in recent days, but these weren't directed at Ukraine, they were (mostly) the result of broader civil unrest. Bulgaria doesn't share a border with Ukraine, but has in the past somewhat regularly joined in with the other four countries when it comes to trade disputes with Ukraine.

Yemen:

The Houthis managed to score a hit on an American merchant vessel flying under a Marshall Islands flag, called the M/V Gibraltar Eagle. According to the United States, the Houthis had launched an earlier missile strike, but it fell short and landed somewhere in Yemen. Successful strikes by anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) against moving targets are exceedingly rare, with the Houthis yet again demonstrating a high level of competency despite their mostly outdated arsenal.

Regional tensions have soared through the Middle East as Iran launched missiles against groups previously uninvolved in the ongoing regional tensions in Iraq and Syria. In particular, Iraqi Kurdistan (an autonomous region and close ally of the United States) came under fire multiple times. Missiles hit nearby the American consulate in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. No damage is known to be have done to American assets, but several civilians were killed as some Iranian missiles directly hit private houses. Iran's reasoning for the strikes was an alleged retaliation against an Israeli operation center, as Iran still blames Israel for the terrorist attack in Iran last month that ISIS claim. Israel is not confirmed to have bases in Iraqi Kurdistan, though they have historically had cordial ties and cooperated together on things such as humanitarian aid and oil exports. In addition to striking western allies in Iraq and Syria, Iran is also reportedly taking a more active role in Yemen itself, with the United States accusing Iran of having deployed IRGC advisors to Yemen.

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