Gabriel B
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Ukraine - January 12, 2024

Ukraine - January 12, 2024

Jan 13, 2024

Not long after the United Kingdom joined the United States with launching strikes against the Houthis, British Prime Minister Sunak made a surprise visit to Kyiv. While there, the United Kingdom announced a military aid package of unprecedented size, with a heavy focus on offensive drones. Both aerial and naval drones are to be included. It is reportedly the largest commitment of drones to Ukraine to date. Other parts of the package (totalling around $3.2 billion USD) include additional training for Ukrainians soldiers, additional air defenses, anti-tank weaponry, and long range missiles. Particularly as aid from the United States and the European Union has effectively halted, the significant military aid package is vital to Ukraine. If distributed in a timely manner, it will help Ukraine to survive and rebuild their capabilities during the winter.

Budanov, who is responsible for Ukrainian military intelligence, gave an interview which signaled a change in the mindset of Ukrainian leadership. Most notably, he more or less admitted that 2023 was a stalemate, offering up the perspective that neither Russia nor Ukraine were able to advance much due to the proliferation of mine fields and drones. While the observation is hardly a profound one, Ukraine has previously been loathe to admit that 2023 was a stalemate, instead choosing to play up things such as the pushing back of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, even while bemoaning the lack of support they were receiving for mine clearing and defense against drones.

On the note of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Russian media has asserted that the fleet will be retreating from Crimes and even possibly their base in Novorossiysk, which is located in Russia itself. However, this retreat is not to be immediate. Instead, Russia is awaiting the completion of a new naval base in Abkhazia, a Russian-backed and occupied breakaway region from the country of Georgia. Russian media has estimated that the base will be completed in late 2024, or possibly early 2025. While the Russian retreat may be over a year away (if they even follow through), it means the fleet will be in a much more defensive posture. This in turn means that Ukraine can reduce their air defenses along the coast eventually, and increase their density along the front, major cities, and key military installations as the threat of missiles from the Black Sea will have been reduced. However, Ukraine will still have to leave some as the fleet may risk launching strikes at Ukraine and due to the geography of the occupied Crimean peninsula.

In another incident involving Transnistria, the region accused the central Moldovan government of training dozens of soldiers, including Ukrainians, to carry out terrorist attacks against Transnistria. Incidentally, this mirrors similar claims that Moldova has made in the past towards Russia, particularly in 2023 as the country faced a spate of major security incidents and turmoil. Moldova acknowledged that they were training Ukrainian soldiers, but stated that it was for demining purposes. As for the rest of the claim, Moldova categorically denied it, and Transnistria has yet to surface any backing evidence for their assertions. Overall, the events of the past few days paint a very different picture from just a few weeks ago when Transnistris was seemingly interested in increasing ties with Moldova.

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