Gabriel B
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Ukraine/Middle East - January 06, 2024

Ukraine/Middle East - January 06, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Ukraine:

Russia launched another major offensive at Krynky, hoping to crack the Ukrainian bridgehead. As with prior attempts, their new effort failed as well. However, Russia is still managing to make the bridgehead quite challenging for Ukeaine to hold, and is depriving Ukraine of the ability to bring over any significant amount of armorers vehicles and other equipment. Ukraine is unlikely to break out any time soon, but Russia doesn't seem to be willing to commit the resources necessary to destroyinf the bridgehead, as it would likely be quite painful for Russia looking at how their previous attempts to expel Ukrainian troops from Krynky have gone.

F-16 drama continues, as Denmark has said that their transfer of the warplanes to Ukraine will be delayed. However, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military stated that it's not a "catastrophe" and that Ukraine has been planning for this sort of thing. In the meantime, there has been a notable uptick on Ukrainian strikes against Russian air defenses in multiple theaters. Ukraine launched another round of strikes on Crimea, hitting a command post, ammunition depots, and radars used to detect incoming aerial attacks. Ukraine also destroyed a pair of air defense systems in Belgorod, Russia. It seems as if Ukraine is preparing for the eventual arrival of the planes by weakening Russia's ability to counter them now.

It's unlikely that anything will happen, but Erdogan is once again offering up his role as mediator and pushing for renewed talks between Ukraine and Russia. Turkey had helped to broker the Black Sea grain deal, but that collapsed when Russia unilaterally pulled out; and they are unlikely to rejoin. Turkish ally Qatar has played a major role with arranging prisoner exchanges, but it would be awkward for Turkey to disrupt that process by inserting itself. And for anything more substantial, neither Russia nor Ukraine seems in the mood. Still, if Erdogan can act as an interlocutor once again, some good may come from it.

Poland's farmers are once again partially dropping their blockade of Ukraine after the Polish government made a number of concessions. These range from subsidies for Polish corn to offering better loans, and a pledge to not raise taxes further on the agricultural sector. In exchange, at least one of the border checkpoints that the farmers have been blockaded will be abandoned by the farmers. The status of the others are unclear at this point, and the trucker blockade is still going in full force. However, the Polish government has demonstrated that it is willing and capable of striking deals with these groups, so there is a chance an arrangement could be made with the truckers to allow commerce to once again flow between Ukraine and Poland.

The United States broke with its internal precedents, as the fact that the Secretary of Defense was hospitalized for several days had not been made public. This has thrown the political and media worlds into a storm, and opens up a can of worms about if and when other important officials may have been quietly out of commission. It's entirely possible this is the first instance of something like this happening recently, but it does cast a doubt on how cohesive the American chain of command is; and that has ramifications on how much allies of the United States (such as Ukraine) can trust it. And if key officials were privately out of commission for an extended amount of time in the past, it would certainly help to explain some of the disconnect between Ukraine and the United States regarding military planning and what both countries feel is an adequate amount of equipment to undertake military operations.

Middle East:

Israeli forces are now moving through some of the outlying areas of northern Gaza. These are less dense areas where the high intensity combat seennin places such as around al-Shifa hospital or in Gaza City hasn't been seen. The Israeli decision to move on these areas (a lot of which are close to the dividing line of northern and southern Gaza) suggests that the operation to fully conquer northern Gaza is nearing the end.

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