Gabriel B
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Ukraine/Middle East - January 05, 2024

Ukraine/Middle East - January 05, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Ukraine:

The biggest news regarding battlefield developments related to Belgorod, Russia. After days of heavy shelling effecting the area around the city (part of mutual strikes between Ukraine and Russia in the Kharkiv and Belgorod regions), the governor of Belgorod oblast stated that citizens who want to evacuate the capital city would be provided the necessary support to do so. Ukraine's military intelligence agency, the HUR, also announced that they had accomplished a raid into the oblast. This is highly unusual, as Ukraine has previously used groups comprised of disaffected Russian citizens (namely, the RDK and LSR) to launch such raids. Ukraine sending actual Ukrainians across the border is quite rare. Ukraine will frequently conduct espionage and sabotage missions deep into Russia (which typically are also unclaimed by Ukraine), but an armed raid is a much more overt type of operation. The rest of the front was pretty uneventful, as heavy fighting continues around several points but neither side are able to make any notable advances.

Additional corruption investigations in Ukraine have been made public. One of them relates to Energoatom, Ukraine's state enterprise overseeing the country's nuclear power. The mother in law of Energoatom has been accused of making suspicious purchases, believed to be above the income level for the family. As a result, their finances are now being closely monitored. Another relates to Kyivguma, a major rubber and plastics manufacturing company. The corporation is accused of shipping items such as bandages, harnesses, and were reportedly sent by way of of her European countries. Kyivguma denied that they sent anything to Russia after the invasion, but also said that if they had, it wouldn't have been military-grade equipment. In a third case Volodymyr Saienko, a deputy head of Ukraine's Federation of Trade Unions, faces charges of attempting to bribe judges. The reason for the bribery attempt stems from previous charges relating to other financial crimes.

Shortly after Polish farmers rejoined the blockade of Ukraine, the new Polish government made new requests of the EU to attempt to find a compromise. As the EU is hoping to extend theie free trade agreement with Ukraine, Poland is pushing for restrictions to be placed on Ukrainian poultry and sugar. While the main complaints of the Polish farmers have been regarding Ukrainian grain products, there have been smaller complaints about other Ukrainian food products as well.

Russian Oleg Deripaska managed to acquire a new private jet by way of Kazakhstan. This puts Kazakhstan in quite the awkward situation, as they previously promised to implement some sanctions on Russia in line with western requests. The transfer of the key took place before Kazakhstan's pledge, but it does thrust their still somewhat close relationship with Russia into the spotlight once again.

Nepal has suspended the issuing of work permits to Russia, citing the number of Nepalese mercenaries who have died fighting for Russia (believed to be around ten). This seems to be a final response from Nepal, which previously uncovered a smuggling ring to get Nepalese citizens to Russia to fight, and which previously demanded that Russia stop recruiting their citizens in December.

Sweden has taken the step of suspending development aid to Mali, citing not only their lack of progress with democratic reforms, but also their diplomatic support for Russia. The step is an unusual one (usually humanitarian and development aid aren't weaponized between two countries regarding an entirely foreign conflict), and opens up the possibility of the slashing of aid for other Russian-aligned countries.

Middle East:

Israel has scaled down some of their demands and finally put forward a basic template of a post-war plan. However, it is incredibly unlikely to come to pass. Israel has made some important walk backs with their proposal, such as them not seeking to completely evict all of the Palestinians and allowing some form of Palestinian civilian rule in Gaza, albeit under Israeli "guidance". However, they are calling for an American-led international peacekeeping force to take over security matters once Hamas has been wiped out from Gaza. Heading into an election year in a country where support for Israel and internationalism are both dropping, it's extremely difficult to see why the United States would agree to directing such a mission. And even though Israel has decided that they will not seek to expel all Palestinians from Gaza, multiple news stories broke today of Israel reaching out to various African countries, trying to financially entice them to accept Palestinians from Gaza who are willing to leave of their own accord. The proposal also does nothing to address other mutual concerns, such as the status of Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the reunification of Palestinian governance in the West Bank and Gaza, and the eventual establishment of a fully independent Palestinian state.

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