Gabriel B
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Ukraine - February 26, 2024

Ukraine - February 26, 2024

Feb 27, 2024

Russian troops have lurched forward west of Avdiivka yet again, with there being some reports that the villages of Orlivka and Tonenke have fallen. It seems that Ukraine's defensive lines here are poor, and further villages will likely fall in the coming days. Stepove is a prime example, as is the adjacent village of Berdychi, as well as Semenivka. From there, Russia will probably push over open fields towards the next row of settlements. Unfortunately for Ukraine, this means that the key stronghold of Pervomaiske is likely to be flanked from the north.

Demonstrating shortages of Ukrainian air defense missiles, Russia scored an important hit today as they took out a NASAMS air defense battery. There was also another major first for Russia, as they took the first Abrams tank out of commission west of Avdiivka. Ukraine was only provided with 31 of these, so the loss of any is significant. The United States has thousands of Abrams sitting in storage, but had to be pushed for months into sending the 31, and it doesn't seem likely that a large infusion of Abrams tanks will be happening at any point in the future. There hasn't been any real talk of providing more with the currently stalled aid bill, for instance. Speaking of, the United States is now four days away from a partial government shutdown, but some members of the House have suggested that they might be able to force the Ukraine aid bill to be UK for a vote within a week or two after a funding bill for the government is passed. This means aid may be renewed for Ukraine in March, and the United States military has already said that some aid is ready to be shipped quickly as soon as the funding is there.

Zelenskyy today signed a very important bill, which provides for the demobilization of draftees who have fought for the entire duration of the conflict measuring from the 2022 invasion. While these troops are among the most experienced, they are also the most exhausted; and exhaustion at these levels on the battlefield is dangerous. This way, Ukraine can preserve some of their more experienced troops to fight again in the future. It is also politically opposite to the need to mobilize more manpower; while it does the opposite of helping the issue directly, it shows that there is an end in sight to those who are drafted. And that means that there may be less pushback, at least from some people, if they are mobilized. This also further underscores that Ukraine is likely to take a defensive posture this year. With manpower and munition shortages, there isn't much they can do. But whenever the new mobilization law is actually drafted and passed, it will allow for an influx of troops; but if the aid issue isn't resolved, having extra bodies at the front would only do so much. This would be an optimal time for training them, in anticipation of when aid would actually arrive.

There was a flurry of, frankly, bizarre diplomacy today. It began with Ukraine reiterating their desire to reopen an international airport, stating that discussions were ongoing. The largest concern is, of course, protecting it from Russian attacks. This was followed shortly by a statement from Slovakia's Fico, who is much more supportive of Russia than most EU and NATO leaders, that there were plans to send western troops into Ukraine. This was then followed by a series of statements by Macron, ending with him flat out stating that he was attempting to maintain strategic ambiguity. He didn't want to rule out the possibility of western troops being sent to Ukraine, while also affirming that there were, not currently, plans to send troops to Ukraine. Fico then followed up by expressing that some EU and NATO countries were wanting to send troops, some were ambivalent, and some were against it. All of this comes as Ukraine is clearly on the backfoot and has taken their most significant loss in months at Avdiivka, and as American aid is still stalled.

Mixed flags were also thrown by Germany, once again. Chancellor Scholz reaffirmed that Taurus missiles would not be sent to Ukraine; even while highlighting the need for Ukraine to have additional long range capabilities. Sholz' reasoning was also a bit bizarre, claiming that shipping Taurus missiles to Ukraine would make Germany a party to the war. Meanwhile, multiple countries have shipped similar weaponry to Ukraine and, well, there is no third world war ongoing. Adding to the confusion is that Sholz was at a summit today where Macron was, when the latter declared a coalition of countries to provide Ukraine with long range missiles and bombs. Exactly where this leaves Germany is not certain.

Polish farmers have thrown up additional protests and blockades, causing backups along the borders with Germany and Lithuania in addition to the ongoing blockade of Ukraine. Ukraine is increasing their calls for Polish authorities to take actions against those imposing the blockade, as well as those who have been dumping Ukrainian agricultural products from train cars.

At long last, the Hungarian parliament has ratified Sweden's accession to NATO. All that is left is for Orbán to sign and transfer the papers to the United States; this is expected to happen by the end of the week, and Sweden will officially become the newest member of NATO. From then, the probable process of transferring Gripen jets to Ukraine will start. Ukraine has also openly looked to other countries for planes as well, such as France.

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