Gabriel B
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Ukraine - February 16, 2024

Ukraine - February 16, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Newly appointed Commander in Chief Syrskyi has openly stated that Ukraine is retreating from Avdiivka, confirming that the all but publicly known operation to pull out of the city over the past couple of days is taking place. I am frankly a bit surprised that Ukraine, particularly under Zelenskyy and Syrskyi, is willing to abandon Avdiivka but it is absolutely the right call. I feel it is happening too late, but Ukraine's leadership has clearly learned from their mistakes at Bakhmut, where they lost a lot of their best forces fighting against vast quantities of low quality Russian troops. Already, there have been numerous reports of Ukrainians troops having to surrender to advancing Russian forces, and others being killed while trying to flee along the tenuously open dirt roads leading from the city. While the retreat seems to be somewhat organized, it is nevertheless a costly one.

Avdiivka is likely still nominally contested as Ukraine's evacuation is likely not yet complete, and Russian troops have yet to secure the whole city. Even so, they are already pushing past Avdiivka. To the west, Russian troops are closing in on the village of Lastochkyne. Ukrainian media has reported that they have poor defenses west of Avdiivka, but even so, that has been enough to block Russian advances at straighter portions of the front such as by Stepove. Russian troops will also be exhausted by their lengthy campaign to take Avdiivka, and many units will need to undergo reconstitution. Russia will certainly have an opportunity to press their advantage against Ukraine's reported lack of prepared defenses, but I am not confident that they actually can. And depending on when spring weather hits, the window of opportunity for Russia may close in a matter of weeks, if Ukraine has an early spring.

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was imprisoned, was killed today. I say killed, because it was supremely obvious that he was despite the official cause of death being a blood clot. He reportedly died while out for a walk, but the government's statement on his death, a full press release, was issued a mere two minutes after his time of death. While appearances can only reveal so much about an individual's health, yesterday he appeared to be fine and well and was even joking during a video call. His killing happened around a month before Russia's scheduled presidential elections (which will be neither free nor fair). In short, this was a gesture that simply shows that Putin is still in control; he can kill his domestic opposition with impunity at his own leisure. The visage of elections provide no protection to his opposition. This should send chills down the spine of those formally running against him, such as the imprisoned Igor Girkin and the most prominrnt opposition candidate running to Putin's left, Boris Nadezhdin. Further effectively confirming that Navalny was killed was many in the Russian media apparatus accusing Zelenskyy and various figures in the west of orchestrating his death. By and large, the accusations were reciprocated, with western leaders and Zelenskyy rither outright accusing or heavily implying that Putin was behind Navalny's death. It is worth stressing that Navalny was already targeted by the Kremlin before, famously surviving a poisoning attempt.

Zelenskyy popped up in France first, and will be visiting Germany later. Macron and Zelenskyy agreed to a new aid package which will see France give €3 billion in military support for 2024. What exactly is to be included was not specified by France or Ukraine, except for some basics; additional howitzers, shells, and air defenses. Furthermore, France has offered additional unspecified support for Ukraine for the next decade. Even with the upport from France, Germany seems unmoved on the issue of Taurus missiles being sent to Ukraine, once again sidestepping the question at the Munich Security Conference.

Pressure is mounting on Hungary to ratify Sweden's accession to NATO. With Sweden more explicitly tying the transfer of warplanes to Ukraine with their inclusion into NATO, Ukraine's allies are paying increasing attention to the issue. With the House in recess, several members of the Senate of the United States traveled to Hungary specifically to press the Hungarian government on the issue.

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