Gabriel B
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Ukraine - August 31, 2023

Ukraine - August 31, 2023

Sep 01, 2023

Russian milbloggers have claimed without evidence that Russian forces are in control of Robotyne, but have claimed that Ukrainian troops are trying to bypass Robotyne.  Seeing as the last footage from the village showed Ukrainian troops in control of it, I see little reason to believe the Russian milbloggers in this instance.  However, they have already fought their way back into the southern edge of the village once before being driven off; it's possible that they have replicated this feat.  Notably, Ukraine's offensive operations in the area slowed today as well.  There has been a lot of confusion over the status of Verbove with some claiming the town is contested, but I am sceptical of these reports.  Russian sources have reported that several Ukrainian reconnaissance groups have made their way near Verbove.  I believe that this is probably closer to accurate, though understating the ability of Ukraine to pass through the primary defensive line in the area.  Ukraine I think is likely scouting the area and conducting probing attacks to tire out the Russian forces and to see where they are weakest before going for a full breach that would enable heavy equipment to move through.  Russian positions in Verbove continue to come under heavy fire from Ukraine.  Ukraine has also claimed advances nearby Novoprokopivka.


Ukraine has yet again landed forces west of Kozachi Laheri.  Russian troops have heavily targeted the area, and it's far from clear if Ukrainian troops simply stopped by briefly, if they plan on conducting a multi-day raid again, or if they are actually trying to establish a permanent beachhead.  If I had to take a guess, it was likely just a small scouting party, but they have clearly spooked the Russian garrison.


There's little to report on from the Mokri Yaly river valley and Vuhledar fronts.  Fighting here seems to have calmed down a bit, though Russia claims to have repelled an assault near Pryyutne.  Ukraine gained some positions near Pavlivka recently but without a follow up, the situation ultimately hasn't changed until and unless Ukraine can recapture the town.  Similarly, there have been no reported changes on the Bakhmut front, but by virtually all accounts the fighting there is still quite bitter.  Russian troops are trying to claw back territory around Kurdyumivka, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka, while Ukrainian troops are trying to break into Yahidne northwest of Bakhmut.


There have been some unverified claims that Ukraine is advancing towards Vilshana, northeast of Kupyansk.  Seizing the village would go a long ways towards alleviating the pressure on Kupyansk.  The loss of the Oskil river crossing at Dvorichne, as well as the loss of Novoselivske, are still both issues Ukraine would have to contend with.  But recapturing Vilshana would basically force Russia's main grouping trying to advance through Synkivka to stop for the time being.  However even the most optimistic reports don't yet have Ukrainian troops in Vilshana, and it's worth repeating that these are all unverified for now.


New satellite imagery has revealed that precisely two Il-76s were destroyed, and another two were damaged in Pskov.  It's a rarity that the Russian and Ukrainian version of events align with each other, perhaps this time both knew that what happened would be fairly easy to determine.  However, news involving the Pskov airbase is far from over as today Russian air defenses were activated at the base once again.  This time however, the base did not come under attack.  Instead, Russian forces were firing at what they claimed was a solitary unidentified flying object.  I am presuming that this was a Ukrainian drone perhaps being used for surveillance, and not aliens.


Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov is reportedly going to be fired within the next week or so.  The Kyiv Independent, citing an MP, reported that Reznikov will likely be given a diplomatic post, probably becoming the next ambassador to the United Kingdom.  Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar is to be overlooked, with Rustem Umerov, the head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine, to take Reznikov's post.  I am certainly sceptical of some of these claims; it wouldn't be the first time a parliamentarian has made a claim that was false.  However when taking into consideration recent events, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Reznikov is sacked.  The posting to the United Kingdom is also a fairly reasonable one, as the country just appointed a new Minister of Defence itself; that relationship between Ukraine and the United Kingdom thus was already going to have a bit of a new start.


My suspicions yesterday that a new clampdown on loud voices within Russia was imminent were ultimately confirmed today.  The administrator of the "Moscow Calling" Telegram channel was detained.  Another three now reportedly have warrants out for their arrest, including Romanov who was previously wanted by the local Russian military in Kherson oblast.  For his part, Igor Girkin (or those running his channel) all but declared that he was running for president despite being imprisoned.  He lambasted Putin from the right, saying that Putin needed to take on a more hands on approach towards Ukraine, and put more Russian resources into military production so that the war can be successful.  It seems he's gambling that if he's very clearly the opposition candidate, Putin will hold back from assassinating him as it would be too obvious of an assassination; not that Putin has done much to cover up the shoot down of Prigozhin's plane. 

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