Today was an incredibly exciting day, to say the least. But first, I'm starting off with battlefield developments within Ukraine.
The Ukrainian flag has gone up over southern Robotyne. If Russian troops are still present in the town, they likely control no more than a single street. Milbloggers supporting both Ukraine and Russia declared the village to be fully under Ukrainian control today. Ukrainian troops are also increasingly active close to the defensive lines around Verbove.
Progress is slow, but there are increasingly reports that Ukraine is close to trapping a number of Russian troops near Pryyutne. This is likely in the bulge between Pryyutne and Staromaiorske; there was a claim yesterday it had fallen, but there was never any confirmation of that. Regardless, it seems likely that sooner or later Russian troops will be forced to abandon the advantageous heights they hold in the area, if they haven't already. Ukraine has also very heavily targeted the road connecting Staromlynivka to Kremenchuk, clearly laying the groundwork for a future push to Staromlynivka itself.
The battle around Klishchiivka continues to be an absolutely brutal slog, with both sides making minimal advances at best. A Russian push against the Klishchiivka area from the north failed, while there are some claims that Ukraine has, yet again, pushed into the center of Klishchiivka. However, this means little unless if they can also dislodge Russian troops from the opposing hills.
Russia has kept up the heavy bombardment of Kupyansk and its surroundings, with a particular focus on bridges. This strongly suggests that Russia has no plans to cross the Oskil river any time soon; or if they do, it'll be straight across the border, rather than from the eastern bank of the Oskil. Russia has certainly improved their river combat capabilities, but it is still comparatively a weak point of theirs when measured to Ukraine, so I doubt they will try a river crossing while having knocked out most of the bridges.
The first major notable event to occur today was in western Crimea, where Ukraine, by drone, recorded the destruction of an air defense battery, possibly Russia's elite S-400. Anti ship missiles were also reportedly destroyed, but there was no verification of this. Russian milblogger Rybar also insinuated that Ukraine may have advanced and either captured or driven Russian troops way from some oil rigs in the Black Sea; the rigs themselves have likely been abandoned for quite a while though. The attack on air defenses, recorded by an airborne drone, was embarrassing for Russia to say the least. It was likely an extension of Ukraine's latest naval operations in the area. Ukraine also released footage, disputing Russia's claim of sinking several boats. Ukraine's footage was far more clear and longer, but I have some suspicions about it. For instance, it shows a Russian missile disappearing into the sea. It didn't detonate, which it should have upon impact with the water. In which case, it was presumably a dud. In addition, it simply slipped into the water with no visible splash, which is possible, but a bit unusual. I also have some doubts about a missile launch from a Ukrainian boat; the footage wasn't super clear, but it seemed to be quite similar to the Russian missile, which I find improbable.
Ukraine for literally the first time since February 24, 2022, managed to capture a Russian helicopter. The big question is how? Ukraine and Russia have put out competing stories, and frankly, both are rather wild. The Russian version of events is that Ukrainian electronic warfare caused a Russian helicopter crew to become lost. They managed to cross the front, travel for dozens of kilometers through Ukrainian airspace, and decide to and be allowed to set down at a Ukrainian airbase. Only when they realized where they were, they attempted to take off, but were shot at and killed. Ukraine's version of events was they were contacted by a pilot wanting to defect. They claim to have squirreled his family out of Russia beforehand, then had him fly his helicopter across the border loaded with spare parts for Ukrainian warplanes. After landing, the other two crew members realized what was happening and tried to escape, and were shot dead. It's worth noting that the helicopter itself appeared unharmed, a point in Ukraine'a column. The helicopter was variously reported to have landed in Poltava or in Kharkiv. Putting the two together, I think it is probable that the helicopter was landed at a town called Poltava, located in Kharkiv oblast.
The third major event took place northwest of Moscow, where a Wagner plane was shot down. According to the passenger manifest, Prigozhin and Utkin, the founder of PMC Wagner, were on board. Other Wagner members were alleged to have been on board as well. The manifest listed ten people, but only eight bodies were found so far, but many of the bodies were in pieces. The plane was reportedly shot down by two air defense missiles, variously reported as either S-400 or S-300 missiles, meaning the downing of the plane was almost certainly a purposeful strike orchestrated from the Kremlin. While making a public appearance, it seemed as if Putin could barely contain his smile. Some in the Russian media have speculated that a bomb was on board and that Ukraine was behind the attack. But two different people I spoke with who are knowledgeable on such things (including a plane crash expert) were of the opinion that the damage done to the plane and publicly available information on the end of its flight was far more consistent with it being shot down. Allegedly, some Wagner fighters are also being recalled from Belarus. Of note, the Wagner mutiny took place exactly two months ago. The ramifications of the deaths of Prigozhin, Utkin, and other prominent Wagner members has the potential to be very far reaching. The organization has committed extensive war crimes across three continents, but it is now lacking obvious leadership at the top. Around a month ago, Putin floated the idea that the very decorated veteran Andrei Troshev could lead the Wagner Group. He is a name to be following in the coming days and weeks. He is already under international sanctions for his role in organizing Wagner's logistics in Syria; he's also reportedly unstable and an alcoholic. In addition, Russia formally acknowledged today that Surovikin was sacked and no longer heads the air force.
The EU and Japan have both separately announced new plans to help sustain Ukraine, though the EU plan has not been formalized yet. The EU is looking at cobbling together a €50 billion financial aid package for Ukraine, likely to be disbursed over many years. Japan is planning on providing Ukraine with the equivalent of $7 billion to help the country rebuild. Separately, Lithuania stated that two NASAMS launchers promised in June will be delivered next month. The additional high end air defense systems will help Ukraine to defend its energy infrastructure ahead of the autumn and winter, when Russia is expected to try to freeze Ukraine into surrendering yet again.