Gabriel B
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Ukraine - August 18, 2023

Ukraine - August 18, 2023

Aug 19, 2023

Today was a fairly slow news day, but there have been a couple of developments.

Primarily, Ukraine has continued to advance slightly through Robotyne. Both sides are steadily shelling the town, meaning that it is very contested. Ukraine is also still heavily pushing in the Verbove area, but did not advance further. This part of the front, arguably, remains the focal point of both armies. Particularly as criticism of Ukraine's slow progress mounts from the west, they need to score a breakthrough in order to guarantee sustained military aid from the west. And, still, pushing through Robotyne and beyond remains their best chance.

The other major location where they may score a breakthrough is Staromlynivka. Already, some Russian milbloggers have reported that the battle for the town has begun. However, I believe that they are referring to the general region, rather than the town itself. Ukraine is still seemingly focusing on attacking Kremenchuk and Pryyutne. In addition, there has been reported combat directly to the south of Urozhaine and Staromaiorske, which very strongly implies that Ukraine has not yet reached Staromlynivka.

There have been few shifts elsewhere along the front. Both sides are still fiercely contesting Klishchiivka, but Russia is seemingly unable to establish a firm presence in the town. Likewise, Ukraine is pushing on Kurdyumivka and Andriivka but is unable to outright capture and secure either yet. Russia's offensive towards Kupyansk and broadly, the Oskil river, has yet again stalled out at least for the day. Ukraine has slowly been losing ground here, and it will continue to pose a major threat to their lines if they cannot push Russian forces back away from Kupyansk.

A rather outlandish story of a wounded Ukrainian marine trapped in Mariupol for almost a year has emerged. Allegedly, he was rescued from Mariupol in February of this year. Regardless of the accuracy of his exploits, if he was rescued in February of this year (or any time after the first couple of months of the war in 2022) it points to a very strong intelligence network that Ukraine has established through the occupied territories. If Ukraine can exfiltrate individual soldiers who were trapped tens of kilometers behind the front lines, it points to some major gaps in Russia's ability to defend, at least against small units. It's quite possible that Ukraine can exploit these gaps and cause chaos behind the front, even as Ukraine struggles against Russia's vast lines of static fortifications.

Ukraine has reportedly targeted Russia's Black Sea Fleet again, both out at sea and in port at Novorossiysk. However, no critical damage seems to have been done. There has also been intensified discussions about the former Black Sea grain deal. It has been reported that the Turkish government had advanced knowledge that Russia intended to terminate the deal. It has also been reported that Turkey, along with their ally Qatar, plan on establishing a new grain arrangement with Russia. This is all ahead of an alleged plan for Putin to visit Turkey, where the Turkish government is expected to try to coax Russia to rejoin the Black Sea grain deal in full.

Zelenskyy in his nightly address has stated that Ukraine has made major progress this week, though he declined to talk about details. There are several different things he could be referencing. For instance, Moldova has offered to help export Ukrainian grain, while Romania has said that they want to have Ukraine send over half of their agricultural exports through Romania, even as Romania doesn't want to directly import Ukrainian agricultural products. Combined, the two countries could greatly help to sustain Ukraine's economy. Ukraine has also opened a new border crossing with Romania and is planning on building a new border bridge with Moldova. On other fronts, the United States is slowly dropping bureaucratic barriers with regards to the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. And along the front, Ukraine has reached crucial points along two different places at the front. Ukraine is also trying to align their legislation with EU and IMF demands as well, and has made progress with both this week.

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