Gabriel B
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Ukraine - August 15, 2023

Ukraine - August 15, 2023

Aug 16, 2023

Ukraine has pushed further into Robotyne. Notably, the western side of the center of the village has witnessed combat, meaning that Ukrainian troops are pushing in against the heart of the village from numerous directions. Much as at Urozhaine, Russia will likely be forced to abandon the village as their routes for resupply (and retreat) are being cut off. Ukraine has also advanced further southeast and east of Robotyne (away from the village), pushing slightly closer to Verbove and Russia's second major defensive line. Notably, Russia scored a hit on a Stryker, which I believe is the first known combat involving these armored vehicles in Ukraine. It certainly suggests that Ukraine has committed additional reinforcements to their push to capture Robotyne and its environs.

Russian sources have claimed that Ukraine has retreated from their positions around Kozachi Laheri and back across the Dnipro. With Ukraine stating nothing further about the situation in the region, I am inclined to believe that this is probably accurate. It would make for an unusual situation in which Ukraine announced their departure prior to Russian claims of advancing, but this may be because Ukraine only intended for the operation to be a raid while Russia was unsure of the situation and if a second assault would be coming. There has also been a widely spread report about Ukraine establishing pontoon bridges to the allegedly still existing beachhead, but this is almost assuredly misinformation. Satellite imagery dated to yesterday shows no bridges established, nor any preparatory work to lay them.

With the days long raid, Ukraine managed to capture an officer and several soldiers, inflict higher casualties than they took, destroy several ammunition depots, take out command centers, and weaken Russian fortifications. Even with Ukraine pulling out and the front reestablishing itself along the old line, it's hard to view the operation as anything other than a Ukrainian victory as Russian capabilities in the area took a beating. Given the severity of the raid, it will also heavily discourage Russia from pulling additional troops to other fronts where Ukraine is trying to push through, such as in Zaporizhzhia oblast.

The Mokri Yaly river valley front has seen no notable changes. Here, Ukraine is likely busy establishing positions in southern Urozhaine before pushing forward. They are also likely busy clearing a path south of Urozhaine, to make sure there are no lines or unexploded cluster munitions. As for Staromaiorske, Russia has held Ukrainian troops to the edge of the village fairly effectively.

There's very little to report on from the rest of the front, as the portions by Bakhmut, the Svatove-Kreminna line, and Kupyansk were all pretty deadlocked today. The fluidity of the front near Kupyansk yesterday was not replicated today. Both sides are waging brutal, grinding offensives along these segments of the front. Unless if Ukrainian lines suddenly collapse in Kupyansk, the Robotyne area remains the best chance for a notable breakthrough by either side.

Zelenskyy over the past two days has visited much of the front, stopping by numerous points near the front in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Such visits are usually used as photo ops and to raise morale, but of course they are certainly used for intelligence purposes as well, so that Zelenskyy can get a better feel for the front and make more informed decisions.

A top NATO official floated the idea of territorial concessions by Ukraine in exchange for NATO membership and, as a result, peace with Russia. Ultimately I think this is the most probable outcome of the war, likely after a bloody and lengthy stalemate. Both Ukraine and Russia quickly demonstrated that they are not willing to accept such terms as of now. Several Ukrainian officials and Zelenskyy all reiterated Ukraine's position that they will continue to fight to liberate all of their territory before peace talks. Former Russian president and prime minister and currently deputy head of Russia's Security Council Medvedev said that they wouldn't be willing to accept any deal that didn't have Kyiv under Russian control. He also stated that Ukraine would be left as a rump state with Lviv as its capital, provided that Poland wouldn't annex the remainder of Ukraine. This is a bit of a more hard line stance compared to Russia's most recent comment on their territorial aspirations, in which they said that they were just wanting to capture the entirety of the oblasts that they unilaterally annexed.

Early in the morning, Russia launched another mass wave of missile strikes against Ukraine, including relatively rare launches against the far western cities of Lviv and Lutsk. One of the locations struck in Lutsk included a Swedish factory, where three workers were killed. Possibly in retaliation, Sweden announced a new sizable military aid package for Ukraine, one notably larger than the most recent military aid package promised by the United States. Included are mostly spare parts and ammunition, as well as unspecified number of Stridsvagn 122 main battle tanks, which are essentially an updated version of the Leopard 2.

After the situation involving the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been (relatively) calm for a while, concerns have suddenly spiked over two different nuclear sites. Chornobyl (Chernobyl) is back in the news again, as power to the site from the Belarusian side was reportedly damaged. Ukraine didn't specify how or why they believe the power lines are damaged. It's important to note though that the nuclear reactors here have been shut down for a very, very long time. There is no danger of any further damage to the area happening provided people don't go into the exclusion zone and do something foolish such as digging trenches. The other site is the Kursk nuclear power plant. Ukraine has accused Russia of preparing a false flag at the site, which is within Russia's internationally recognized borders. Allegedly, a disaster would be organized which would prompt evacuations of a relatively small amount of the oblast, in order to draw attention away from Russia's continued occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

There has been a spate of spycraft incidents throughout Europe which have been reported on now. Russian journalists working for opposition papers and living abroad were reportedly poisoned in places such as Georgia and Germany. The United Kingdom announced that they had detained three suspected Russian spies in February of this year. And Latvia has recalled all vacationing members of their national guard, citing the threat of a hybrid attack by the Wagner Group. Of concerns have been recruiting attempts made by the Wagner Group, as well as reported breach attempts of the Belarus and Latvia border. Latvia has accused Belarus and the Wagner Group of purposefully sending large numbers of migrants to the border to try to overwhelm Latvian security in order to sneak Wagner members into Latvia.

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