Ukraine has pushed well into Robotyne. Russian artillery targeted the center of the town, claiming that Ukrainian reconnaissance forces had infiltrated deep into the village. However, the use of artillery against the center of a small village to handle a reconnaissance team when the village is loaded with Russian military positions feels excessively heavy handed and risky. I suspect that in reality, Ukraine now controls around half of Robotyne. Russian sources also reported that not only has Ukraine pushed into Robotyne from the north and the east, but that they have done so from the southeast as well. The village is pretty small, with a pre invasion population of under five hundred. The slog for Ukraine to actually reach the village and then capture any part of it beyond the fringes has been absolutely brutal for both them and Russia. In comparison, the battle within the village itself might be over relatively quickly.
Russian sources continue to report on a sustained Ukrainian presence to the west of Kozachi Laheri. Ukraine has tried to downplay the operation, but it feels at this point that that is part of a disinformation campaign. The beachhead here seems to be fairly comparable to the one by the Antonovskiy bridge, with Ukraine likely unable to ferry over heavy equipment in any meaningful quantities, but with electronic warfare capabilities and a heavy artillery presence to their west preventing Russia from wiping out the outposts. A civil war is brewing among the Russian milblogger community as Rybar, the first to report on Ukrainian activities around Kozachi Laheri, of conducting a disinformation campaign by stating that Russian troops had expelled the Ukrainian troops from the area.
Virtually all Russian and Ukrainian milbloggers are now in agreement that Russia has completely lost Urozhaine. Southern Urozhaine is likely yet to be fully occupied by Ukrainian troops, as Russia has heavily targeted Urozhaine. This has become a fairly regular tactic that Russian troops use to cover their retreat and to prevent a rapid advance by Ukraine. It does, however, eat into their artillery munitions, something which is increasingly coming into focus as Ukraine has waged a concerted effort to destroy Russian artillery pieces over the past couple of months. Some Russian milbloggers have suggested that Zavitne Bazhannya may rapidly fall, citing an alleged lack of defenses there. Unless if Russia was always planning on outright falling back to Staromlynivka, I have a hard time believing this as Russia has, thus far, fought bitterly against Ukraine's offensive for every spot of land. Ukraine was also stuck at Staromaiorske and Urozhaine for weeks; Russia certainly had time to prepare some defenses in Zavitne Bazhannya even if they hadn't before. I don't expect as long of a battle as for Staromaiorske and Urozhaine, but I do anticipate that Russia will make a strong effort to hold onto Zavitne Bazhannya.
Russia is continuing their push around Klishchiivka, and Ukraine is continuing to hold the line. Combat has dramatically intensified along this part of the front as Russia is trying to reverse a gradual decline. Russia has of course previously already captured this territory when they came close to fully encircling Bakhmut, demonstrating that they do have the organizational and material capabilities to capture the terrain, though the Wagner Group did play a significant role in that. Ukraine's control over the high ground west of Klishchiivka doesn't give them an impregnable position; but of course, it does still give them an advantage. Klishchiivka is likely empty of any sustained military presence once again as Russian and Ukrainian forces have heavily targeted the other when they try to enter the town.
The situation around Kupyansk has loosened up a bit, with Ukraine pushing a bit along the Oskil to the north of Kupyansk, and Russia gaining a bit of ground to the northeast. While Russia hasn't netted any notable amounts of territory for several days along this front, today has proven that the front is still fluid. This means that Ukraine still has to devote a hefty amount of resources here to try to block Russian troops from cutting off or advancing to Kupyansk.
Something curious is happening to Russian warplanes. Two in three days have crashed during training exercises, including one in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. These crashes have helped to fuel speculation that Russia's warplanes may have hit the end of their lifespan, as heavy use against Ukraine, shortened maintenance due to the need to get them airborne again, and probable shoddy maintenance before the invasion (think of how corruption involving truck maintenance kneecapped Russia's initial convoys) are all dragging on Russia's aerial capabilities. I'm a bit dubious that Russia has reached this point, as they should have learned from Syria what not to do. Syria pushing their planes to the absolute limit is a large part of why Russia intervened, as Syrian warplanes were literally dropping out of the sky. There are other plausible explanations for these crashes; Russia might be rushing training, instead, or its possible that they simply got hit with a dose of bad luck. However, it's certainly something to keep an eye on. If Russia's air force experiences such degradation in the future, it could help to offset the continued delays with getting F-16s into Ukraine.
The amount of attention being paid to the Black Sea region continues to rise. A floating naval mine struck a Romanian pier and detonated. A second mine was spotted off the coast as well. Meanwhile, Putin is expected to visit Turkey in the coming days, where it is expected that Turkey will try hard to convince Russia to rejoin the Black Sea grain deal. Possibly incidentally, possibly related, a week ago a Turkish warehouse loaded with grain exploded; and, today, a tanker just outside of Istanbul was wracked by an explosion. Both incidents have plausible explanations that don't point to foul play, but given ongoing events, both are being investigated.