Gabriel B
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Ukraine - August 09, 2023

Ukraine - August 09, 2023

Aug 10, 2023

Combat is still intense around Robotyne, with both sides, again, claiming limited advances. My best read of the situation is that it is heavily stalemated. It remains Ukraine's best chance to break through into and beyond Russia's second defensive line, a fact which both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are keenly aware of. With Ukraine and Russia unable to establish air superiority, Russia still retaining an edge in artillery, and Ukraine still heavily lacking in the necessary equipment to clear minefields, the situation seems primed to remain a stalemate unless if developments elsewhere along the front fundamentally shift the balance of power.

A large amount of footage from Kozachi Laheri has emerged, though it's not clear if it is from today or from the past couple of days. It shows an intense bombardment of the area around the town, as well as more precision strikes against Russian positions. There's been few new information to come from this segment of the front, with Ukraine being quite cryptic about the situation. It's a very challenging and delicate operation Ukraine is attempting, if their plan is to establish a full fledged lodgement in the area. It's also entirely possible that they have yet to make a firm decision, as Russia hasn't signaled whether or not they will strip troops away from other fronts to send back to the Dnipro front.

Urozhaine is now heavily contested. Ukrainian troops have pushed down from the north, securing part of the north. They are pushing towards the town centers, but this push still has some ways to go before they reach the center. However, a push across the Mokri Yaly has seen Ukrainian troops enter the western part of Urozhaine's center. Consequently, the northwest part of the town is at serious risk of falling out of Russian control shortly, as Russian troops risk being cut off if they remain. The southern part of the village will likely be the most challenging for Ukraine to capture, as there are a number of fortified structures. However, Ukraine has been targeting entrenched Russian positions within Urozhaine for quite a while, so it's very possible that these buildings are heavily damaged.

There are some early reports that the situation south of Bakhmut is shifting slightly in Russia's favor. In particular, Russian troops have allegedly made their way back into Andriivka, which was likely devoid of troops for a while. Ukraine has continued to push ahead slightly around the northern edge of Klishchiivka. Russia is still trying to push their way back into the village, but they have not made any headway. In the meantime, Ukraine is advancing, but their progress is being measured in dozens of meters.

After the fall of Novoselivske, Russia has launched a major thrust against Kupyansk directly. Intense battles are being fought around the town of Synkivka a few miles away. A piece from openDemocracy has disputed Ukraine's claims of a hundred thousand troops being arrayed against them (an assessment most analysts have agreed is incorrect). Instead, they put forward a much more reasonable estimate of fifty thousand. However, this is still a very formidable force. With Ukraine's defensive lines struggling elsewhere in the region, Russia's offensive is at long last posing a genuine threat after several early setbacks and struggles.

Early in the morning, Russia claimed to have intercepted two drones near Moscow. Shortly after, footage of a factory in the Moscow region detonating emerged. Russia quickly claimed that it was a "pyrotechnics" factory. However, pictures taken by locals showed remnants of artillery shells strewn all about; clearly, the factory was instead a munitions factory. Ukraine also launched deep drone strikes into other locations in Russia, such as at Stavropol. Kurchatov, located in Kursk oblast, was also hit.

The Ropucha class landing ship which was struck the other day has been removed from its original station at Novorossiysk. It has been moved to another location where repairs can be carried out more easily. The ship was heavily damaged from Ukraine's drone strike, but it certainly appears to be salvageable. At the very least, Russia is treating it as such. Though it's worth noting that Russia is quite notorious in recent years for having issues with modernizing and patching up their warships. Their aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, has been beset by numerous fires while in drydock for instance.

An analyst has claimed to have heard rumors that Ukraine has quitely received Mirage 2000 fighter jets within the past couple of weeks. While somewhat dated, they are also capable of firing Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which would serve to increase Ukraine's flexibility with being able to use these missiles. France has several hundred of these planes, while Greece has a few dozen, meaning that there is theoretically a very large pool which can be gifted to Ukraine.

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