Gabriel B
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Ukraine - August 06, 2023

Ukraine - August 06, 2023

Aug 07, 2023

There is little to report from the front itself today, as the worst of the heat struck southern Ukraine today. Temperatures in Tokmak, for instance, soared past a hundred degrees Fahrenheit. However, there was some clarification on some parts of the front, as well as long range action.

The day started with a massive Russian missile attack against several Ukrainian airbases, on Ukraine's Air Force Day. The goal was, presumably, both to make a statement but to also reduce Ukraine's ability to launch Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which Ukraine is only known to be able to launch from Su-24 bombers given the planes Ukraine currently has. However it became clear hours later that Russia's efforts failed, as Ukrainian missiles struck key bridges. The Chonhar crossing was hit yet again, but this time instead of the rail bridge, the road bridge was struck. However, it seems as if the missile passed through the bridge before detonating, as the hole in the middle of the bridge is fairly small. Damage to the underside of the bridge is unknown, but at least from the surface view, the bridge seems to be pretty intact. After the hole is patched up, it should be back up and running unless there is some critical damage done to the underside. Pictures of the bridge also revealed a ferry has been set up between the rail bridge and the road bridge. So while the attack will certainly slow Russian logistics crossing from Crimea to Kherson oblast, it didn't completely disrupt them. The other spot connects the Arabat spit (split between Kherson oblast and Crimea) with Henichesk, Russia's administrative center for the occupied part of Kherson oblast. A Ukrainian missile dealt a glancing blow to a bridge and detonated on impact, heavily warping the side of the bridge. Consequently, this bridge will probably require much more effort to repair, and it has disabled a secondary supply route connecting Crimea and Kherson oblast. In effect, Russia is now forced to rely on ferries for the next several days or by passing through northwestern Crimea; the rail routes from here in particular run right through Ukrainian HIMARS range. On a tangentially related note, Zelenskyy also visited a Ukrainian airbase today, and in particular examined Ukraine's Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles.

As mentioned earlier, there were hardly any developments along the front. Despite the quite high temperatures, combat did continue in some places. The main one worth touching on is the Mokri Yaly river valley front, where Ukraine reportedly attacked Urozhaine from three sides. However, the bulk of the village remains under Russian control.

There is new footage from the Novoselivske area. Or, rather, from the adjacent village of Kuzemivka which was already under Russian control. Two new videos emerged showing Russian troops and the milblogger WarGonzo quite close to the railroad which previously served as a rough line of contact. It suggests that Ukrainian troops may have been pushed out of Novoselivske, or at least part of it since the videos were taken fairly safely. However, they do little to verify Russia's claims that they have actually captured Novoselivske. Given the new footage, I am now sceptical of Russia's claims, though it does seem highly likely that Russia's offensive has certainly strengthened their hand in the region.

Peace talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia concluded. The countries present (including China) agreed on a basic template for peace, in which prisoners would be swapped, grain exports would resume, a ceasefire would be implemented, and the territorial integrity of Ukraine would be respected. The latter two points seem to be in conflict with each other, as a ceasefire now would leave Russia in control of a large part of Ukrainian territory. However, Russia notably scaled back their rhetoric today, stating that they are now only seeking to take the land which constitutionally (according to them) is Russian territory. This of course fails to take into account the portions of Kharkiv and Mykolaiv oblasts that Russia controls, which are not part of the oblasts that Russia has annexed (though its worth noting, Russia internally affixed the captured part of Mykolaiv oblast to Kherson oblast). Still, the occupation of part of Kharkiv oblast certainly flies in the face of Russia's claims here.

There's still a high chance for a major conflict in western Africa, but it has been punted back as ECOWAS is reportedly negotiating a new deadline for the restoration of civil government in Niger as their original deadline came and went today. There has been a lot of speculation that it will be pushed back a week, to align with a similar deadline given by the African Union. Niger's junta government closed their airspace and declared that at least two ECOWAS members were deploying troops. Niger has also very openly welcomed the Wagner Group into their territory and has beefed up their diplomatic relations further with Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which are also under military dictatorships and have cultivated ties with Russia and the Wagner Group. The events on the ground spurring the crisis are all local factors, but if a larger conflict breaks out here, I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia and western powers insert themselves in ane ffort to weaken the other. As it stands now, they are largely outside observers with limited on the ground footprints, but there is an opportunity in the event of a larger war for either Russia or the west to deal a significant geopolitical blow to the other.

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