Another day has passed with few major events happening along the front. As a result, I'm now fairly confident that both Russia and Ukraine are simply waiting for the looming heatwave to pass. Temperatures for much of southern Ukraine are expected to shoot up Thursday, again Friday, and yet again on Saturday, when the weather will remain scorching for a few days before dropping again. While the details of course vary some, high temperatures will afflict the entire length of the front, stretching from Mykolaiv oblast to Kharkiv oblast.
Another factor is likely delayed training, arrivals in equipment, and Ukraine underperforming western expectations. Western media is now openly talking about Ukraine's offensive being extended through the autumn, and behind the scenes bickering has meant that Ukrainian pilots still haven't been trained on how to fly F-16s yet; only today did Zelenskyy say that he knew when Ukrainian pilots would finally be trained. Fortunately, that is now expected to happen this month. Ukraine is also ramping up their domestic research, design, and production of military hardware. Today it was announced that testing on a domestically designed and produced de-mining machine has been completed. This has been a major factor holding back Ukraine, as they have only received a small portion of the de-mining equipment they requested; and the front is littered with minefields.
Russia has also put up a firmer resistance than many anticipated; after their repeated strategic and tactical failures, many western prognosticators assumed that Russia would suffer from similar failures again. However, their geography is better (meaning, they're not defending across a major river), they learned the lessons of building fortifications and of defense in depth, and they became far more cautious. And even where they have suffered some sort of failure, the very existence of their extensive lines of fortifications has meant that Ukraine cannot readily exploit them the same way they did during their Kharkiv offensive last year. All of the above put together means that Ukraine really has no particularly strong reason to push ahead through the next week of hellish weather.
In the meantime, positional battles are continuing. Robotyne is still a flashpoint, of course. But the most notable battles today took place along the Mokri Yaly river valley, where Russia actually attempted a river crossing, trying to attack Ukrainian positions in Staromaiorske from Urozhaine, preempting a likely Ukrainian assault going in the other direction. Russia's attempt to push back into Staromaiorske failed. However, Ukrainian troops seemed to be unable to take advantage of Russia's troops in Urozhaine attacking Staromaiorske, as Ukrainian troops are still holed up right outside of Urozhaine. Some have suggested that Ukrainian forces may have entered the northern edge of Urozhaine. I think that this is certainly possible, but it wouldn't change the overall situation. The village is a long one, running mostly north to south. Unless if Ukraine can cut off the road to the south or convince the Russian garrison to retreat or surrender, the stage appears to be set for a bitter fight down the length of the full village.
Some Ukrainian milbloggers have reported that Russian troops have abandoned central Klishchiivka. Combined with heavy artillery strikes against positions north and east of Klishchiivka, I think it probable that the suburb of Bakhmut is mostly empty, with Ukrainian troops likely only present in the southern portions of it. Russian forces have also conducted their own small pushes in the area of Klishchiivka, but the absence of recent combat footage from Klishchiivka itself makes me pretty sure that it is empty of Russian troops at this point. Recent satellite imagery also shows that Russia has erected new defensive structures east of Klishchiivka; this is likely where they have withdrawn to. They still control part of a hill overlooking Klishchiivka, which is likely why Ukrainian troops haven't fully secured the town yet. However, Ukrainian troops are present along the same stretch of high ground, but to the south. This is more or less Russia's last stand for the high ground to the south of Bakhmut; if their current bastion falls, Ukraine will have fully secured a couple of strong vantage points overlooking the southern parts of the city.
A spate of arson attacks have hit Russian military offices in recent days. Such attacks are commonplace since Russia's mobilization last year, but the frequency of the attacks over the past few days has been unprecedented. Given Ukraine's extensive intelligence operations inside of Russia, I wouldn't necessarily interpret this as growing domestic opposition to Putin until if and when a number of alleged culprits are caught, and nationality and motive can be sussed out.
As Moldova is tearing up security agreements within the CIS framework and has downgraded relations with Russia, the United States gave a military aid package to the country as part of the modernization process for their rather antiquated military. It was pre planned, but was timely, particularly as a new security incident has gripped the country. Early in the morning, a car crashed into Russia's embassy to Moldova. The driver sped off and collided with other vehicles before being detained, and has refused to cooperate with authorities. This comes as Russia has suspended consular activities after Moldova expelled dozens of Russian diplomats after Russia was accused of using their embassy to spy on Moldova's government and to direct missile strikes in Ukraine.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania previously established plans to leave the BRELL (which stands for Belarus, Russia, and the three Baltic states) power grid system by the end of 2025. After tensions were raised last year between Russia and Lithuania, the latter sought to accelerate their plans to leave BRELL by 2024. International electrical infrastructure is certainly a weak point in my knowledge, but my understanding of the situation is that through the BRELL mechanism, the Baltic states have tied their electric grid to each other and to Russia and Belarus. The three Baltic states have been trying to instead decouple themselves from Russia and join the Continental Synchronous Area, which spans most of continental Europe and part of North Africa; Moldova and Ukraine joined after Russia's full invasion of Ukraine. Estonia Latvia, and Lithuania have agreed to suspend their participation in the BRELL arrangement as of the summer of 2024, and will fully change which power grid they are connected to in February 2025. While not as fast as Lithuania was pushing for, it hastens the plans of Estonia and Latvia by almost a year. It also means that a lot of the leverage which Russia has on these three countries, already among the most hawkish against Russia in the EU and NATO, will be greatly reduced in around a year and a half from now. While that is quite far off still, it is a looking geopolitical headache for Russia which was just shifted closer to the present.